As of today, the Russian military command does not want to redeploy forces from other operational directions to the Kursk region, so as not to disrupt its offensive in eastern Ukraine. However, such a scenario is really possible, notes the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Points of attention
- The breakthrough of the Armed Forces of Ukraine into the Kursk region can change the course of the war.
- The Russian army has already engaged various units and special forces to fight for the lost Russian territories.
- The Russian military command may transfer more experienced units to the Kursk region, but it will take a long time.
A breakthrough of the Armed Forces can change the course of the war
Foreign analysts have come to the conclusion that the Russian military command believes that the situation can be saved by units deployed in the border area and easily accessible forces in the rear.
These units are likely to be the first to respond, even if the Russian military command decides to redeploy additional, more experienced units from other parts of the theater of operations, the report said.
In addition, it is emphasized that the Russian army has already involved:
Special Forces (Main Intelligence Directorate of the General Staff of Russia [GRU]),
special operations forces (SSO),
additional Chechen special forces "Akhmat",
Army Corps of the Donetsk People's Republic (AK DPR),
ex-fighters of the "Wagner" PVK
The Russian military command may be transferring more experienced and better equipped front-line units from eastern or southern Ukraine to the Kursk region, but it will likely take additional time for such units to arrive in the Kursk region, experts emphasize.
The ZSU succeeds in disrupting the offensive of the Russian army
According to one of the Russian military commanders, the units that the aggressor country levied for an offensive operation in the north of the Kharkiv region are already being transferred to the Kursk region.
If this is true, then perhaps the Russian military command has decided that the failure of the offensive operation in the north of the Kharkiv region is a necessary sacrifice, analysts note.
It is also important to understand that the enemy is still trying to prevent the redeployment of his forces from more priority areas of the front.
According to experts, a larger redeployment of Russian troops from the frontline areas will probably be slower.
It is also indicated that more combat-ready front-line units may start arriving in the Kursk region in the coming days.
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