A member of the Institute of Advanced Studies in National Defense (IHEDN), French political scientist Olivier Védrine is convinced that Europe should switch to a military economy to help Ukraine.
What Ukraine needs
Védrine told La Depeche that in November 2023, during a visit to Kyiv, he felt fatigue among his friends but not resignation.
If the Russians break their front or something worse, the question for the Ukrainians will not be whether they will fight but how and what with. They will do anything to resist. Only the dismissal of the AFU Commander-in-chief [Valerii] Zaluzhnyi and the future mobilisation went rather badly, not because of a lack of courage, but because of a lack of weapons. What do you do if you only have one shell to fire and the Russians have ten? You can put the best general on the field, but if he has no funds, he has no funds.
Olivier Védrine
political scientist
Védrine emphasises that Ukraine lacks aircraft — none of the promised F16s have yet been delivered — anti-aircraft systems and, above all, ammunition, artillery and long-range missiles.
They [Ukrainians] are suffering from Russian attacks deep into the territory, but the West denies them weapons to wage war on Russian territory. This asymmetry is unbearable. Since December 27, American supplies have not occured, and the Europeans will be able to provide only half a million rounds promised by the end of March. Ukrainians clearly see that primarily Western support is collapsing.
Putin bet on the Western fatigue
The political scientist says that two years after Russia's invasion, only 10% of EU residents believe that Ukraine's victory is possible, and many would like the conflict to be "frozen".
That Munich spirit continues to weaken part of Europe, but the Russians can also thank Trump and Republicans in US Congress [who are] blocking American aid. Putin bet on Western fatigue, and Trump encouraged him by offering it to him on a platter. More seriously, he is ready to pay off NATO or even hand over to Moscow those in Europe who, he says, are not paying enough.
Olivier Védrine agrees that "Ukraine is Spain in 1936 or Czechoslovakia in 1938" if Europe continues its aid as it has been.
A breakthrough point for Ukraine
At the same time, he noted that Paris and Berlin signed a 10-year defence and support agreement with Kyiv, Denmark promises all its artillery, Sweden will provide 600 million euros in aid, and the Czech Republic also knows where to find 800,000 shells and offers an agreement to finance them.
We are at the breakthrough point, it is true. But we must go further: Europe must switch to a war economy, as some politicians are beginning to acknowledge. If Europe clearly switches to a war economy, if you build tanks instead of cars and finance it from the frozen assets of Russian oligarchs, then Putin will immediately get the message. Every time we were firm with him, he stopped.
Regarding French aid, Olivier Védrine says that at the beginning of the Russian invasion, Emmanuel Macron was widely criticised for his phone calls to Putin.
I think now that he has realised his mistake and the need to start acting, France has also become a target for the Kremlin. But I repeat, if we all do not switch to a war economy now, within two or three years, we will all pay a very high price. Putin won't stop at this point.
Olivier Védrine
political scientist
