Ukraine targeted Crimea, a critical base for the Russians. Kyiv's recent missile strike was designed to reduce Russia's capabilities on the peninsula by targeting airfields, air defenses and logistics centers.
Points of attention
- Ukraine is targeting Crimea and making impressive progress, according to an analysis by The New York Times.
- The Armed Forces use high-precision missiles to target objects in Crimea, destroying Russian air defense systems.
- Ukraine's campaign is aimed at strengthening positions and forcing the Kremlin to respond to the threat.
- Attacks on Crimea could provoke a reaction from Russia and cause increased combat readiness at American bases.
- The effectiveness of the strikes depends on clearing the path and destroying Russian air defense systems, which may affect the war strategy in the region.
Ukraine has set its sights on Crimea and has already achieved impressive success
As The New York Times writes, for a long time the sky above the Black Sea was full of traces of rockets. However, these missiles were almost always Russian. Now they fly from both sides. Ukraine, armed with high-precision American-made missiles, is able to reach every corner of Crimea for the first time - and the missiles are increasingly flying in this direction.
This is a new strategic push. While unlikely to have much of an impact on the front line, Ukraine's ATACMS campaign aims to force the Kremlin to make tough choices about where to deploy its most valuable air defenses to protect critical military infrastructure.
At a NATO summit in Washington last week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi said the Crimean campaign would have limited effect as long as Moscow could shift its bombers to air bases deep in Russia. He pressured the Biden administration to lift restrictions on strikes deep into the Russian Federation.
Since ATACMS arrived this spring, the Ukrainian military has said it has destroyed or damaged at least 15 long-range Russian air defense systems in Crimea. Among them are powerful S-300 and S-400 batteries.
Over the past three months, commercial satellite images have confirmed damage to Russian radar installations, electronic warfare equipment, logistics routes and airfields.
It's certainly fair to say that the Ukrainians have made some pretty impressive gains over the past few months, said Justin Bronk, a senior fellow in aviation and technology at the Royal Joint Services Institute in London, who has studied satellite imagery.
"Clearing the way"
At the same time, he added, the new high-tech weapons were generally becoming less effective as the Russians adapted and Ukrainian stockpiles dwindled. Strikes in Crimea are also likely to have a minimal impact on the fighting on the front, especially in eastern Ukraine.
Attacks on the peninsula using Western weapons have angered Russia, prompting it to warn the US of the "consequences" it would face if it provided modern weapons to Kiev.
In part because of these warnings, several American bases in Europe have recently been put on high alert. Bases, including the U.S. Army Garrison in Stuttgart, Germany, home to U.S. European Command, were apparently concerned about potential Russian sabotage, U.S. officials said.
Crimea has deep political, symbolic and military value for Vladimir Putin, who has called it Russia's "holy land" and placed it at the center of his fake narrative that Ukraine is part of Russia.
After the illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, Moscow invested heavily in expanding its military presence on the peninsula — military facilities were spotted both in coastal areas and in mountainous enclaves. The Kremlin has also invested resources in making Crimea a tourist destination.
Crimea helps support the Russian occupation of southern Ukraine and is equipped with land-based missile systems used to target Ukrainian cities. Penetrating Russia's powerful air defenses remains a challenge, but this summer Ukraine was able to launch attacks designed to overwhelm and confuse air defenses.
In the massive attack on May 29, Ukraine used domestically produced aerial and naval drones, Western cruise missiles and ATACMS to defeat Russian air defenses, Ukrainian military and intelligence services said.
The attack damaged two ferries that played a crucial role in the military supply chain between Russia and Crimea.
The Ukrainian attack on ferry crossings and the subsequent attack on a nearby fuel depot again highlights the vulnerability of the strait to Ukrainian attacks, despite Russia's significant investments in security and air defense, the British military intelligence agency said in a statement.
A senior US official who has been following the war closely said Ukraine was using US-supplied long-range missiles "very effectively". The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said Ukraine has enough ATACMS to support the Crimean campaign, adding that the ammunition is being replenished on an ongoing basis.
Without giving exact numbers, the official said the United States was sending "dozens" of missiles, but not "hundreds".
Continuation of attacks on Russian air defense equipment may force Moscow to move part of its military aircraft from Crimea "or risk the loss of new aircraft", British intelligence reported.
Ukraine is putting pressure on the Biden administration to lift restrictions on strikes deep into the Russian Federation, in particular on air bases.
Imagine how much we can achieve when all restrictions are lifted, Zelenskyy said in a speech last week at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute in Washington.
Ben Hodges, the former commander of US Army Europe who has long advocated giving Ukraine long-range strike capabilities, said he has been impressed by Ukraine's targeting methodology since the introduction of ATACMS.
They do what we would do. Doing air defense to lay the groundwork for what comes next, he said.
F-16 fighter jets are expected to begin flying over Ukraine in limited numbers this summer, but their effectiveness would be limited if Russia's air defense remained intact.
If you want your drones, F-16s, or whatever you want to hit big targets, you need to clear a path, Hodges said.
