India intends to distance itself from Russia, its main arms supplier, as the war in Ukraine has limited the Kremlin's ability to supply the country with ammunition.
Russia may lose the most significant weapons because of war against Ukraine
Nandan Unnikrishnan, a Russia expert at the Observer Research Foundation, told Reuters that India was unlikely to sign "any major military deal" with Russia because it would cross a "red line" with the United States.
In addition, an expert at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses, an expert at the Indian government's Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses, Svasti Rao, said that the war in Ukraine has caused doubts in India about Russia's ability to provide the country with the necessary spare parts.
ISW analysts said they regularly monitor reports that Russia continues to face problems repairing aircraft and other equipment and is unable to produce missiles and artillery ammunition at pre-war levels for its use. Experts say this makes it unlikely that Russia can export military equipment to India or other customers at the level it was before the full-scale war.
ISW also adds that Russian President Vladimir Putin recently noted Russian-Indian economic and military-technical cooperation during a meeting with Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar. Analysts believe that with this, the head of the Russian Federation probably tried to emphasize positive Russian-Indian relations against the background of the aggressor country's concern that India is trying to diversify its defence partners.
Why is India planning to distance itself from Russia?
The publication notes that the world's largest arms importer is slowly moving away from Russian weapons and returning to the West. In addition, the US seeks to strengthen ties in the Indo-Pacific region, hoping to contain China's rise and weaken Russia's influence.
According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, over the past two decades, Russia has supplied 65 per cent of India's more than $60 billion worth of weapons. However, the war in Ukraine accelerated the push to diversify its weapons base.
Russia, in turn, publicly calls on India for cooperation. But India wants to boost domestic production. Also, last year, India and the US signed a defence agreement, particularly on the joint production of engines for fighter jets.
At the same time, Reuters notes that New Delhi will have to "walk a fine line" in relations with Russia, as the termination of cooperation will push Moscow closer to Beijing.
Buying arms buys you influence, said one retired Indian official.
Experts note that India's fears about whether Russia will be able to continue supplying spare parts for military equipment have not dissipated against the background of the fact that the war in Ukraine is dragging on.
