Ukrainian expert on international energy and security relations, president of the Center for Global Studies "Strategy XXI" Mykhailo Honchar drew attention to the importance of joint counteraction by Ukraine and Europe to the Russian hybrid war in the Baltic Sea.
Points of attention
- Mykhailo Honchar emphasizes the need for Ukraine and Europe to unite in countering Russian hybrid warfare in the Baltic Sea.
- The potential capabilities of Ukrainian MBECs 'Magura' can play a crucial role in protecting interests at sea and altering the balance of power.
- The concept of opening a Baltic Front against Russian aggression is proposed, with insights into how Ukrainian involvement can impact the situation.
"Baltic Front" to counter Russian aggression: how Ukraine can help NATO
Gonchar recalled that on May 14, the Estonian Navy tried to detain another tanker for inspection, which was heading to a Russian port to load oil. The vessel was sailing under the Gabonese flag and did not respond to the command from the Estonian ship to change course.
The interception operations, according to the Russian side, were facilitated not only at sea, but also from the air — in the sky there were aircraft of the Polish Air Force (MiG-29) and Portugal (F-16, there is no confirmation of this), whose combat aircraft participate in the NATO mission to protect the skies over the Baltic countries. And suddenly a Russian Su-35 fighter appears, which, according to the version again from the Russian side, disperses all air and sea pursuers, and the tanker docks at the Ust-Luga terminal for loading.
Mykhailo Honchar
Ukrainian expert
Honchar noted that the Estonian version of events does not provide details of how everything actually happened, but there is a result — the tanker was not stopped for inspection and the Russian fighter jet, which was in Estonian airspace for a minute, was not intercepted.
Let's simulate a situation where there were Ukrainian Magura MBECs in the Baltic Sea. What would have happened to the Su-35 that prevented the Estonians from stopping the tanker for inspection? That's right, the same thing would have happened to it as on May 2 with two Russian Su-30s that were destroyed over the Black Sea by our Maguras under the command of Group 13 of the Ministry of Defense's Air Defense Forces.
The expert recalled that the GUR first showed this unique MBEC on May 14. So, for his part, Honchar proposes “opening a "Baltic Front" to counter Russian aggression against Ukraine and Europe.”
If Ukrainian MBEKs enter the Baltic, where will the ships of the Russian Baltic Fleet end up? That's right, right there, where the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet, the cruiser "Moscow", is — on the seabed. And those who survive will quietly stand near the berths in the eastern sector of the sea. The Baltic Fleet's aviation will also replenish the underwater fleet, which so far consists of two Su-30s and two Mi-8 helicopters, destroyed by the "Maguras" on December 31, 2024 near Crimea.
According to the expert, in this case, even NATO in the Baltics will feel more protected.
Honchar reminds that Russia is increasingly starting to rattle its weapons in the Baltic: Baltic Fleet ships have intensified training, and aircraft are making provocative overflights of the water area. And this is in a sea that is considered EU and NATO territory, especially after Finland and Sweden joined the Alliance.
Therefore, dear Estonian friends, give us a base somewhere in the Baltic and our "Magurs" will show the aggressor what the "Kuzkina Mat" looks like in a naval version. He doesn't understand anything else.
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