Russia is provided with the resources for a war against Ukraine at the current intensity for at least two more years. The reasons for this are high oil prices, circumvention of sanctions and government investments.
Russia can fight against Ukraine for at least two more years
Reuters reports this concerning a joint report of the Department of Counterintelligence and the Military Intelligence Service of Lithuania, which has not been made public.
The report says Russia has reformed and strengthened its battle-scarred army in 2023 and is on track to expand its military capabilities along its border with NATO, including with Finland, which joined the alliance last year.
Moscow is able to assess the lessons learned and increase its combat capability, Lithuanian officials write.
Activities of Russian intelligence
The report says that Russian intelligence is trying to avoid sanctions imposed on the country's defence industry after it invaded Ukraine.
Russian and Belarusian special services have also stepped up their efforts to recruit Lithuanians crossing the border.
Lithuania detained several of its citizens in 2023, whom it accused of providing data to Belarusian intelligence in exchange for cash.
Aid to Belarus and China
Ever since Russia deployed warheads in Belarus in 2023, it has been steadily building the infrastructure there to use them.
Speaking of China, Lithuanian agencies said the country stepped up its espionage efforts in Lithuania in 2023 following Lithuania's decision to allow Taiwan to open a de facto embassy on its territory in 2021.
The report says cyber actors "linked to China" regularly probe Lithuanian government institutions for vulnerabilities "to penetrate their networks and steal data".
Also, while only Iran and North Korea openly supply Russia with arms and ammunition, China has become its largest supplier of microchips, and the yuan has become the main currency for Russia's international operations.
