The legal status of millions of Ukrainian refugees in the EU could be at risk. There is currently no clear plan to allow them to stay after a ceasefire with Russia.
Points of attention
- The legal status of millions of Ukrainian refugees in the EU is at risk due to the uncertainty post-ceasefire with Russia.
- The decreasing number of refugees planning to return to Ukraine poses challenges in private relations between EU countries and Ukraine.
- Different EU countries have varying interpretations of the Temporary Protection Directive, leading to disparities in how Ukrainian refugees are treated.
Millions of Ukrainian refugees may lose legal status in the EU
After Russia's invasion in February 2022, the EU's Temporary Protection Directive (TPD) became a lifeline for nearly 4.3 million Ukrainians.
The directive allows EU countries to grant Ukrainians the right to live, work and access services, with most of them in Poland, Germany, the Czech Republic and Slovakia. As ceasefire talks continue, this safety net could be undermined.
Recent surveys show that the number of refugees planning to return to Ukraine is falling. Data from the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) shows a decline from 65% in 2024 to 77% the previous year.
The share of those undecided increased from 18% to 24% in 2024, and the number of those who said they had no hope of returning more than doubled, from 5% to 11%.
A ceasefire could immediately turn the tide, giving host countries the opportunity to decide whether to relax these protection measures, pursue integration, or encourage refugees to return home.
Last year, EU governments agreed to extend the TPD until March 2026, well beyond the initial framework, which provided for a two-year protection period with a possible one-year extension. Any extension is granted once a year.
The levels of protection also vary by country. Each EU country interprets the directive slightly differently in its national legislation, meaning that Ukrainians are treated differently depending on where they have settled.
The European Commission said it had begun considering next steps, including whether to "extend or not" temporary protection, help people transition to national statuses for work, study or family reunification, and provide support to those who decide to return to Ukraine.
Some countries did not wait for Brussels and took steps to seek "longer-term permanent status":
Poland will soon offer three-year temporary resident status to Ukrainians who have had continuous temporary protection for at least a year.
In the Czech Republic, Ukrainians who have lived there for more than two years and have a job will be able to obtain a new special five-year residence permit with mandatory school attendance for their children.
Other capitals are developing their own plans. Austria, Italy, Estonia and Latvia are stepping up with long-term solutions, with varying levels of protection.
The German Interior Ministry said it had already developed options for action, but the decision on what proposals will actually be put forward on the issue will be made by the next government, stressing the need for a unified European approach.
The Slovak Interior Ministry confirmed that further steps regarding displaced persons after the end of the Russian invasion are "currently being discussed at the level of member states, including Slovakia, as well as at the EU level."
According to the UN, as of December 16, 2024, 6.8 million Ukrainians were registered abroad. However, this data also includes those Ukrainians who left (or were forcibly deported) to Russia and Belarus. If we do not take into account Ukrainians who are in the territory of aggressor countries, their number is 5.5 million.
