The Russian air defence system could have shot down the Il-76 military transport aircraft.
What is the probability of Il-76 downing by Russian air defence?
The former head of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation's representative office in Ukraine, senior researcher at the Munich Security Conference, and military expert Nico Lange thinks the downing of the Il-76 looks like the work of air defence.
He added that the Russian side constantly uses S-300 systems in this area. However, there was still no information about using either the Iris-T or Patriot systems in the Kharkiv region of Ukraine, which borders Belgorod. At the same time, the fact that the plane was shot down is a fact. The videos on the networks show the plane crash.
Lange is in no hurry to agree with the Russian Ministry of Defense that a Ukrainian missile could have allegedly shot the plane down.
So far, there has been no indication that Ukraine could deploy such systems in Kharkiv, which is under heavy fire. So, everything looks like it could have been a so-called "friendly fire", Lange said.
According to him, if it was really so-called "friendly fire", Russia will stubbornly claim something else.
Lange explained that in such cases, Russia quickly begins to "throw" some of its narratives into the information space, which is difficult to verify. The military expert warned that Russian "clarifications" and investigations should not be trusted. According to him, the information coming from the Russian side should be taken very carefully.
Lange added that the Russian side's claims that there were 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war on board the downed plane, who were being taken for exchange, also look "very dubious."
The fact that a plane would transport prisoners of war over an area near a combat zone is highly unusual, Lange said.
According to him, prisoners of war are usually transported by road transport.
The IL-76 plane crash: what is known
Russian propaganda media spread information with reference to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation that a Russian Il-76 military transport plane crashed in the Belgorod region during a scheduled flight.
At the same time, they said that there were allegedly 65 captured Ukrainian servicemen on board, who were being transported to the Belgorod region for exchange, as well as six crew members and three escorts.
The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War reported that specialised structures in Ukraine are currently collecting information and analysing the downing of the plane.
Ukrainian mass media reported that there were probably S-300 missiles on board.
There have been no official announcements from the Ukrainian authorities on this matter yet.
