Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban threatens to block aid to Ukraine. This could play to the advantage of US presidential candidate Donald Trump.
Points of attention
- Orban is preparing a "political gift" to Trump, threatening to block aid to Ukraine worth 50 billion euros.
- Hungary is also threatening to offer a proposal to extend sanctions against Russia, which could come in handy for Trump.
- The EU is looking for ways to bypass Hungary's veto on aid to Ukraine, with plans to provide up to 35 billion euros.
- Orbán's position may affect international cooperation and help Trump in his election campaign.
- The European Union's apprehension regarding Orban's actions regarding military support for Ukraine forces it to look for alternative financing options.
How Orbán plans to play along with Trump
The publication notes that Orbán plans to make a "political gift" to Trump by coming up with a way to help him in the election campaign.
It is about the possibility of avoiding participation in the $50 billion position that the USA, the EU and the G7 countries offered to Ukraine. This would allow Trump to declare to his voters that he, in case of victory, "will not give Ukraine a cent."
Hungary threatens to block a proposal to extend sanctions against Russia for 36 months instead of six, as demanded by the US. This is needed to protect frozen Russian assets that can be used to cover the loan.
European diplomats warn that blocking the sanctions will lead to additional costs for the EU, but this is not a problem for Orbán. According to one of the diplomats, "Hungary doesn't care if Europe has to pay more, the main thing is to help Trump."
If Brussels and Washington agree to a loan of 35 billion euros, Trump, in case of re-election, will be forced to service it for many years. However, if the loan is approved without US participation, he will avoid this obligation.
Although Orbán continues to threaten, the US makes it clear that it is ready to participate in the loan, but with a smaller amount, even if the EU does not extend the sanctions.
One option is to contribute $5 billion, which corresponds to frozen Russian assets in the United States, leaving Europe to cover the bulk of the costs. Japan has also hinted that it may withdraw from the agreement if the US does not participate.
The EU found a way to bypass Hungary's veto on Ukraine
According to journalists, already on October 9, the ambassadors of the European Union intend to reach a political agreement on the terms of providing aid to Ukraine for 50 billion euros using the proceeds from frozen Russian assets.
What is important to understand is that we are talking about a loan from the Group of Seven, within which official Brussels plans to provide up to 35 billion euros.
The draft decision provides that a significant part of the funds will go to programs financed from the EU budget, and only 5% will go to the European Peace Fund, from which the European Union will compensate member countries for the cost of military aid given to Ukraine. A majority will be enough for a decision, so Hungary will not be able to preserve it.
According to journalists, the huge number of obstacles on the part of the Hungarian leader Viktor Orban's team is one of the reasons why the European Union wants to abandon the use of the European Peace Fund as the main instrument of military support for Ukraine.
