Kremlin dictator Vladimir Putin is waging a hybrid war against NATO countries and has already opened a second front on the Alliance's eastern border.
Points of attention
- Putin is waging an undeclared hybrid war against NATO, causing tensions in the east.
- Russia's hybrid attacks include criminal recruitment and destabilization of the Baltic states and Finland.
- European countries are strengthening their eastern border and calling on NATO to respond to hybrid threats from Russia.
- Russia is trying to spread fear and uncertainty in the Baltic Sea region through hybrid actions.
- Experts emphasise that European countries' efforts in countering hybrid threats testify to the general state of war in the region.
What is known about the start of Putin's undeclared hybrid war against NATO
The publication notes that on May 23, Russian border guards resorted to provocation at dusk.
The Estonian military reacted to this provocation but quickly realized it was a hybrid act of aggression.
It is noted that the incident was reported as one of a series of acts aimed at provoking and destabilizing the Baltic states, which border Russia and Belarus.
It is noted that such incidents do not lead to an act of direct aggression, which could cause a direct collective military response by NATO. Still, they have become much more frequent after the start of the criminal war against Ukraine unleashed by the Kremlin.
The article's authors note that such incidents are increasingly turning the Baltic region into a second front in the confrontation between Western countries and Russia.
Russia is currently fighting two wars. One is a kinetic, conventional war in Ukraine. The other is a hybrid war in Europe and the West with the aim of influencing the tone of public discourse or in some way shaking our sense of security, — noted the President of Finland, Alexander Stubb.
How Russia is using hybrid attacks to destabilise Europe
It is emphasised that sending groups of migrants to storm the borders of EU countries, jamming GPS signals, and recruiting criminals to commit minor sabotage is part of Russia's hybrid war against the Baltic states, as well as Finland.
These countries responded to Russian aggression by strengthening and modernizing the eastern border for 3.5 billion dollars.
The Baltic countries and Finland also called for the issue of hybrid attacks to be included in the agenda at the NATO summit in Washington.
In just the past few months, Finland and Sweden have experienced airspace violations, several commercial planes have been unable to land at small airports due to interference with the Global Positioning System, and Poland has detained Russian agents for alleged sabotage.
It is noted that the most hot point of tension remains the Russian border in Narva next to Estonia.
This year, Moscow restricted traffic on the border bridge to pedestrians only.
Estonia monitors the area for drone activity and has posted signs warning travellers of Russian intelligence recruitment efforts.
The location of navigational signs on the river has traditionally been agreed with Moscow so that fishing and pleasure boats do not accidentally enter Russian territory. Still, as of 2023, Russia has not consented and disagreed with the location of about half of the 250 buoys.
Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland share a border with Russia that stretches over 2,300 kilometres; they also share 1,250 kilometres with Belarus. That's longer than the US-Mexico border.
Since the Cold War, the 100-kilometer corridor separating Poland and Lithuania, known as the Suwalki Corridor, has been considered a strategic obstacle in any conflict scenario.
Sandwiched between Belarus and the armed-to-the-teeth Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, the territory, if partitioned, would cut off the Baltic states' land access to the rest of Europe.
According to Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis, this does not indicate imminent military activity but rather that Russia is "trying to spread fear, uncertainty and doubt about its intentions in the Baltic Sea."
Russia's closest Western neighbours have long been among the most aggressive in assessing Moscow's intentions.
All stakeholders are forced to combat misinformation and influence operations at record levels.
According to their intelligence services, Moscow routinely portrays the Baltic states as warmongers and Russophobes and has recruited trolls and an army of bots to spam social media with malicious content.
The Kremlin has tried to recruit Russian-speaking minorities in Estonia and Latvia to sow internal discord, largely without success.
Lithuania's armed forces intervened in March with a message on social media to reassure the population—"there will be no war today"—after soldiers were publicly approached and asked when the conflict would start and how to prepare for it.
Russia has also resorted to low-key tactics, sending migrants to border areas to pressure border controls and potentially stoke public discontent.
Seeking to weaken and destabilize Europe from within, Russia is diving more deeply than ever into its toolkit of hybrid operations, according to a May 30 report by the European Center of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats in Helsinki.
It makes the hybrid threat from Russia ubiquitous.
There is no front line in this. The whole of Europe is now in a state of war — emphasises the Funnish MFA chief Elina Valtonen.
