Central Asian countries, with the support of the World Bank, are launching a project to create a single energy space, which should reformat the regional electricity market. However, Russia is losing its position as a key player in the local energy market.
Points of attention
- Central Asian countries, backed by the World Bank, are spearheading the REMIT project to establish a unified energy space, reshaping the regional electricity market.
- Russia's diminishing role in the Central Asian energy market is attributed to conflicts with Ukraine, sanctions, and technological stagnation, leading to a shift in power dynamics.
- The REMIT initiative aims to merge hydropower capacities in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan with thermal generation in Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, alongside solar and wind power plants, fostering energy synergy.
Russia is losing ground in the Central Asian energy market
The REMIT program is designed for 10 years and involves the integration of hydropower capacities in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan with thermal generation in Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, as well as with solar and wind power plants based on the principle of energy synergy.
As noted by the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, the total cost of the system exceeds $1 billion, of which $143 million has already been financed.
Until recently, Russia was considered one of the key players in the Central Asian energy market and claimed the role of coordinator of integration processes. Under its patronage, the Eurasian Economic Union promoted the idea of creating a joint energy center in the region.
However, Russia's war against Ukraine, international sanctions, and the lack of modern technologies in the main beneficiaries of the EAEU — Russia and Belarus — effectively thwarted the implementation of these plans.
Thus, the start of work, scheduled for 2025, was postponed until at least 2027.
In turn, the Minister of Energy and Infrastructure of the Eurasian Economic Commission, Arzybek Kozhoshev, admitted that even 2030 could be only an approximate start date for the project.
According to him, the prospects of the Russian-Eurasian energy hub itself remain uncertain due to the lack of a free gas market in Russia and significant differences in regulatory approaches between participating countries.
Against this backdrop, the REMIT initiative is more pragmatic and institutionally sound. According to World Bank estimates, the cumulative economic impact of its implementation by 2050 could reach $15 billion, making the project one of the largest infrastructure shifts in Central Asia in recent decades.
