The illegitimate president of Russia, Vladimir Putin, concluded a strategic partnership agreement with North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un. There is no text of the agreement yet, but many media outlets are writing about the military alliance, as the document provides for mutual protection.
Points of attention
- Putin and Kim Jong-un have signed a strategic partnership agreement that could raise concerns in Ukraine over possible military cooperation and arms supplies.
- The document envisages mutual protection of the countries, as well as possible military-technical cooperation, which can exacerbate tensions in the region and open the way to new military actions.
- The signing of the agreement shows that the intentions of Moscow and Pyongyang to raise relations to a new level may have negative consequences for stability in the world.
- The possible formation of a military alliance between the Russian Federation and the DPRK in the event of aggression against one of the parties to the treaty poses a threat to international security and the peaceful resolution of conflicts.
- Ukraine should carefully monitor the development of the situation and look for ways to preserve its own security, taking into account the possible consequences of the agreement between Putin and Kim Jong Un.
Dictators Putin and Kim Jong-un signed a new agreement
Putin arrived in the North Korean capital in the evening of June 18. Kim Jong-un called Putin's visit a "historic moment".
In addition, the North Korean dictator once again supported Russia's war against Ukraine and called it the alleged protection of the interests and territorial integrity of the Russian Federation.
Putin predictably waxed nostalgic about Soviet times, saying that the friendship between the countries "was forged under conditions of severe trials." And he mentioned the role of Soviet troops in the region at the end of the Second World War and in the Korean Wars.
Then there were one and a half hours of extended negotiations, after which Putin and Kim Jong-un talked face-to-face for more than two hours.
The result was the signing of a number of bilateral documents. The main one of them is the treaty on Russia's comprehensive strategic partnership with the DPRK.
The comprehensive partnership agreement signed today also provides for mutual assistance in the event of aggression against one of the parties to this agreement, Putin said.
According to him, according to the agreement, Russia "does not rule out military-technical cooperation" with North Korea. The Russian dictator criticized the statements of the US and other Western countries about the supply of long-range weapons, F-16 aircraft and other equipment to Ukraine. He also promised to oppose international sanctions together with the DPRK.
Putin considers the agreement a breakthrough document. Which reflects the plans of Moscow and Pyongyang to bring relations to a powerful level. According to him, long-term goals are set in the contract. "This applies to the political, trade and investment, cultural and humanitarian spheres, as well as the sphere of security," he added.
In turn, Kim called the treaty "the most powerful" and Putin - "the dearest friend of the Korean people." He noted that the document raises the level of "allied relations". According to him, the strategic partnership agreement is "peaceful".
According to him, the agreement reflects the alleged change in the status of Russia and the DPRK in world geopolitics. Putin added that today's meeting supposedly gives impetus to the creation of mechanisms for reducing the impact of sanctions.
The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia, the odious Sergey Lavrov, said that "only a country that plans aggression against Russia or North Korea" can oppose the new treaty between the Russian Federation and North Korea on assistance in the event of aggression.
What can be in the new document
The new treaty replaced the Treaty of Friendship and Mutual Assistance of 1961, the Treaty of Friendship and Good Neighborliness of 2000, and the Moscow and Pyongyang Declarations of 2000 and 2001. As of the second half of the day, no details have been reported, the text has not yet been published.
North Korea became almost the only state that directly and openly supported Russia's war against Ukraine. And supplies weapons in large quantities. Recently, South Korean Defense Minister Shin Won-sik said that Pyongyang could supply up to 5 million projectiles and dozens of ballistic missiles.
It can be said that North Korea saved Russia, helped capture Avdiivka and generally supported the offensive campaign in the winter and spring of 2024. That is why, I think, positions will be recorded in the agreement that the countries will deepen cooperation as much as possible, especially in the military and economic spheres, - believes Oleksandr Musienko, head of the Center for Military and Legal Studies.
Putin's words about help in the event of aggression against one of the treaty participants are actually a statement about the creation of a military alliance.
That is, the level of relations is equated to an alliance. And this is a serious statement, because the alliance is formed, in particular, in case of war. I think he used this wording deliberately and this is a manifestation of escalation, - emphasized the expert.
Based on this, it is logical that the mechanism for providing military assistance may be prescribed in the contract. And it is quite possible that this part will be non-public.
I do not rule out that individual parts may provide for the participation of North Korean troops (in the war against Ukraine, — ed.), when Russia needs it, taking into account the situation at the front. In my opinion, it can be in the treaty on strategic partnership with the DPRK.
Oleksandr Kovalenko, a military-political analyst of the "Information Resistance" group, suggests that such a clause may be in the contract.
Perhaps they (North Korean troops, ed.) will appear to gain some combat experience, but in small numbers. Several divisions for the next "meat grinder". We are not talking about sending hundreds of thousands of "special forces".
At the same time, he is in no hurry to call it a real military alliance. Previously, on the example of the USSR, China and the DPRK, some agreements appeared that did not end in anything global. And Russia did not receive any profit from them.
Why a new treaty to both dictators
Before the visit, Putin published a laudatory article about cooperation with North Korea. He praised Kim's dedication to the legacy of his father and grandfather and called Pyongyang a "steady like-minded person." He also confirmed his support for North Korea's fight against the United States.
Turning to propaganda narratives creates the conditions for Putin's further requests for military aid, analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believe. Such requests can range from the supply of weapons to the sending of North Korean workers to the occupied territories of Ukraine.
Kovalenko believes that Putin's goal is not so much to involve North Korean troops in the war against Ukraine as to obtain not only shells and missiles, but also equipment.
Russia has big problems, its technology storage centers are almost empty. If the current intensity of hostilities continues, the moment will soon come when it will go into the red and will not be able to compensate for the losses. One of the countries that can transfer military equipment is the DPRK itself.
As for Kim, this is primarily a reputational step for him. It is likely that North Korean TV will tell that Putin came to beg for help, and the "great leader" helped.
And it's also an opportunity to knock out something new under certain conditions. These are live currency, precious metals, even cryptocurrency and much more. And also to expand the range of technologies in which the DPRK is interested.
Possible consequences of the treaty between the Russian Federation and the DPRK for Ukraine
The US is already reacting to Russia's rapprochement with North Korea. The representative of the Pentagon, Pat Ryder, said that the arms deliveries help Moscow to wage war against Ukraine. And Secretary of State Anthony Blinken promised that Washington would do everything possible to stop North Korea's support for the Russian Federation. British Defense Minister Grant Shapps called Putin's visit a warning and added that "a new axis of tyranny is working to undermine our freedoms."
According to Musienko, a few years ago there was a moment when the West could "tempt" North Korea with economic preferences. But the opportunity was not used, and now it is difficult to say how the supply of weapons can be cut off.
I see two ways. The first is to work with China to influence North Korea and Russia. The second is to give Ukraine more means to conduct counter-battery warfare in order to reduce the supply of shells to the front. And plus block cooperation. Because an alliance is emerging before our eyes, in particular, against the West.
In any case, Russia's strategic partnership agreement with North Korea is bad news for Ukraine.
First, North Korea will continue to supply weapons and primarily, of course, ammunition. Secondly, deliveries of equipment can begin. But there are no inexhaustible reserves. And another such moment. If Russia can scoop up everything and fight to the last, then Kim Jong-un is a paranoid who expects an attack from Japan, South Korea, the USA, and really believes in it. Therefore, supplies will be limited.
