According to British journalists, Russian gas monopolist Gazprom does not plan to continue gas transit through Ukraine in 2025.
Points of attention
- The transit of Russian gas may stop as early as January 1, 2025.
- Moscow has not yet officially announced its decision.
- Against this background, Russia will lose a lot of funds that it planned to spend on the war against Ukraine.
Gazprom will stop gas transit through Ukraine
What is important to understand is that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin recently claimed that Russia's aggressor country is ready to continue supplying gas through Ukraine.
Despite this, as the journalists claim, Gazprom's plans for 2025 are about something completely different.
One of the insiders stated that the Kremlin's basic scenario is the absence of transit through Ukraine already after December 31.
According to forecasts, against the background of such a decision by Moscow, exports to "far abroad", which include European countries and Turkey, will drop by 20%.
This includes deliveries through the Turkish and Blue Stream pipelines, but does not include exports to China through the Power of Siberia pipeline, which could reach 38 billion cubic meters. At the same time, Gazprom believes that supplies to Turkey are unlikely to drop.
What is important to know about the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine
5 years ago, Ukrainian Naftogaz and Russian Gazprom signed an agreement on gas transit through the territory of Ukraine.
Its term expires at the end of 2024. Recently, the team of the Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyi said that he is not going to discuss with the Kremlin the extension of the agreement or the approval of a new one.
After the start of the large-scale invasion of Ukraine and the blowing up of the Nord Stream gas pipeline, Russia lost almost all of its European customers.
So, last year it sent about 15 billion through Ukraine, which is only 8% of the peak flows to Europe via various routes in 2018-2019.
According to experts' calculations, due to the termination of transit, Gazprom will lose about 6 billion dollars in annual revenues, and Ukraine — from 800 million to 1.2 billion.
