Russian troops are amassing limited and undermanned forces near the border with Sumy region to draw the Ukrainian Armed Forces into the area from other parts of the frontline.
Why is Russia accumulating troops near the border with the Sumy region
The deputy commander of one of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) brigades operating in the north of Kharkiv region said that Russians are amassing troops in Sumy region, including with the participation of Kadyrov's men.
However, the limited number of personnel suggests that Russia's goal is to distract and entrench Ukrainian forces in this area of the international border.
Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported that the Russian group in the Kursk region has 9,000 to 10,000 people.
According to the expert, this group consists of:
three understaffed motorised rifle regiments, each of which lacks one or two battalions;
eight motorised rifle, tank and infantry battalions;
one battalion of airborne troops (VDP), transferred from various units, formations and military districts;
at least two assault units in the echelon of a reinforced company or an undermanned battalion.
At the beginning of May, Mashovets reported that the Russian group in the Kursk region includes an unidentified battalion of airborne troops. One of the Russian military bloggers noted that the Russian 3rd Battalion of the 104th Infantry Regiment (76th Infantry Division) is located in the Kursk Region.
Even limited activity of Russia in other areas of the international border below the minimum for offensive operations may lead to the withdrawal of units of the Defence Forces of Ukraine from other areas of the front. In the event of a threat of an invasion of Russia into other border zones beyond the northern part of the Kharkiv region, the aggressor's troops will be able to draw attention and fix the armed forces in this zone, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported.
Budanov suggested a new direction of the Russian army's offensive after Kharkiv region
According to Kyrylo Budanov, head of the the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (DIU), Russia will launch a new offensive further north of Kharkiv, in the Sumy region.
Budanov predicted that he expects attacks in the Kharkiv region to continue for another three to four days, after which Russian forces are expected to make a major push in the direction of Sumy.
As the publication notes, Ukrainian officials previously stated that Russia had concentrated troops across the border from the Sumy side.
At the same time, Pavlo Velychko, a Ukrainian officer operating near the Russian border in the Sumy region, reported that Russian shelling of the outskirts of Sumy had intensified recently.
I have no idea if it makes any difference because these places have been shelled so often. In any case, we are in full combat readiness.
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