Atlantic Council analysts warn that Russia's victory in the unleashed criminal war against Ukraine will significantly strengthen the aggressor country and weaken its Western allies.
Points of attention
- Russia's victory in the war against Ukraine could lead to the strengthening of the aggressor country and the weakening of Western allies.
- Putin, as the winner, can mobilize Ukrainians for military service and gain control over Ukraine's military-industrial complex.
- Analysts warn that Russia's success in Ukraine could set a precedent for further aggression against other countries that were once part of the Russian Empire.
- Control over Ukraine would give Russia access to significant energy and mineral resources, ease its financial situation, and increase its influence in international agricultural markets.
- The only way to avoid catastrophic consequences is to ensure the defeat of the Russian Federation in the Ukrainian war, Atlantic Council experts believe.
What is the threat to the West from the victory of the occupation army of the Russian Federation in the war against Ukraine
Faced with such exceptionally favorable circumstances, it would be a mistake to think that a victorious Putin would simply stop and go no further. The Russian army clearly failed to live up to its inflated pre-war reputation in Ukraine, but it would nevertheless be imprudent to underestimate Moscow's military potential, analysts of the Atlantic Council emphasize.
They emphasize that Putin's Russia is currently in a better position than its Western partners, as it is rearming at a much faster pace.
A victory in Ukraine will further exacerbate this already alarming situation, the gap in military capabilities. The Russian and Ukrainian armies are currently the largest and most formidable military forces in Europe, says the report based on the conclusions of the Atlantic Council.
It is noted that in the event of victory of the Russian occupation army in Ukraine, Putin will gain control over significant human and other resources.
While many Ukrainian soldiers will undoubtedly continue to wage guerrilla warfare or try to regroup abroad, a victorious Russia will seek to quickly mobilise hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians for military service, as it has already done in areas of Ukraine controlled by the Kremlin, the Atlantic Council warns.
Analysts note that in this case, Russia will also gain access to large stocks of military equipment in service with Ukraine, which includes stocks of artillery ammunition, attack UAVs, and Western tanks and artillery systems.
In addition, Moscow will establish control over the huge Ukrainian military-industrial complex.
Such an increase in production will allow Russia to quickly recover from heavy losses in the Ukrainian campaign and will enable Moscow to overcome many obstacles created by Western sanctions, the Atlantic Council explains.
The occupation of Ukraine, among other things, will significantly ease the financial situation of the aggressor country.
The Kremlin will acquire Ukraine's vast untapped energy reserves as well as trillions of dollars worth of mineral assets. Meanwhile, the famous Ukrainian granary will enable Russia to establish itself as a dominant force in international agricultural markets almost immediately. Putin has already demonstrated his willingness to use global food security as a weapon by blocking Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea. Control over Ukrainian agriculture will provide the Kremlin with powerful new tools to reward allies and punish adversaries, analysts conclude.
Whom can Russia attack in case of victory over Ukraine
At the same time, analysts predicted the Kremlin's next aggressive steps in case of success in Ukraine.
The Kremlin dictator has made it clear that he views the current war as an imperial desire to return "historically Russian lands." Besides Ukraine, there are more than a dozen other countries, including Finland, Poland, the Baltic states, Belarus, and Moldova, that were once part of the Russian Empire and thus fit Putin's definition of "historically Russia." All of them will become potential targets, the Atlantic Council is convinced.
According to analysts, there is little to indicate that Putin is in any way intimidated by the West, in fact quite the opposite
The Russian ruler has proven so adept at intimidating his enemies that nearly two and a half years after the largest European invasion since World War II, Kyiv's partners are still concerned about preventing escalation and continue to impose absurd restrictions on Ukraine's ability to defend itself. This management of escalation risks the same tragic consequences. If Russia continues to escalate the war, the only thing Western leaders will not be able to do is claim they were not warned, the Atlantic Council report said.
The Atlantic Council is confident that Russia's likely victory in Ukraine will set the stage for even bolder acts of international aggression, and the only way to avoid this catastrophic outcome is to ensure that the Russian invasion of Ukraine ends in Russia's defeat.
