The Ukrainian military may launch a new counteroffensive as early as 2025 against the background of the success of the offensive operation in Kurshchyna.
Points of attention
- The Ukrainian military may launch a new counteroffensive as early as 2025, targeting the Kursk and Donetsk regions.
- Russian occupiers are putting pressure on Donetsk and Kharkiv regions, threatening Ukraine's defense operations in the east.
- Training of Ukrainian brigades and flexible military leadership could lead to successful counterattacks and change the dynamics of hostilities in eastern Ukraine.
- Destruction of Russian Navy ships and air defense systems in Crimea has forced Russian forces on the defensive, creating opportunities for Ukrainian secret operations on the peninsula.
- Analyzing the prospects of a new counteroffensive reveals potential weaknesses in the criminal army of the Russian Federation and opportunities for Ukraine to capitalize on them.
What is known about the prospects of a new counteroffensive of the Armed Forces
Journalists of the publication note that despite the success of the offensive operation of the Ukrainian military in the Kursk region, the criminal army of the Russian Federation is in no hurry to transfer forces from the key areas of the front in the east of Ukraine and continues to put pressure on Donetsk region and Kharkiv region.
Understaffed units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine operate in these areas, stretched along the front line and capable only of slowing down the advance of the Russian occupiers, but not stopping it.
Key cities such as New York, Toretsk, Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk, which are crucial for holding the remnants of Donetsk Oblast, have been under intense fighting and heavy artillery fire since the start of the Ukrainian offensive. According to some data, New York may have completely collapsed, the publication emphasizes.
It is noted that the Russian occupiers have also increased shelling of civilian settlements in Donetsk region, which may be part of a broader strategy of the criminal army of the Russian Federation.
Currently, the Ukrainian military in Donbas is expressing concern that the transfer of part of the forces and resources to the Kursk region endangers the current defense operations in the east of Ukraine.
Cities such as Chasiv Yar remain an active battlefield, and the situation is not expected to improve.
At the same time, in Toretsk and Pokrovsk, Ukrainian troops report an increase in the number of departures of Russian planes - sometimes 10 per day.
The Ukrainian military lacks personnel in Pokrovsk, which actually makes counterattacks impossible.
The proximity of the settlement to the front line and the range of Russian artillery pose a significant threat, since its fall could lead to the Russian encirclement of Kostiantynivka, Kramatorsk and Slavyansk
Ukraine is counting on the fact that in the end it may be necessary to transfer troops from other occupied territories of Ukraine to counter its offensive in the Kursk region of Russia.
American officials assumed that the leadership of the criminal army of the Russian Federation had already partially transferred separate units from the occupied Crimea and captured parts of the Zaporizhia and Kherson regions.
Ukrainian sources also report that Russian troops may be withdrawn from the Kharkiv front.
But, what is very important, there are no signs of withdrawal of Russian troops in Donbas. If true, it shows Moscow's determination to prioritize this offensive, even though Ukrainian forces continue to hold the upper hand in the Kursk region.
However, analysts cite factors that can undermine the criminal army's offensive in Donbas.
It is noted that in case of further advance of the Armed Forces in Kurshchyna, Russia will have to transfer much more forces from other areas of the front in Ukraine.
This could extend the strike range of Ukrainian drones, further undermining Russia's long-range strike capabilities.
What will give Ukraine another counteroffensive
Second, Ukrainian brigades currently undergoing training could be deployed to reinforce the Kursk or Donetsk regions, depending on where Russian forces show signs of weakness. Such flexibility may allow Kyiv to organize a counteroffensive in 2025, and not just another attack on the occupied Donbas, the publication emphasizes.
In addition, analysts remind that the destruction by the Ukrainian warships of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Navy and air defense systems in the occupied Crimea forced the Russian occupiers to go on the defensive.
Guerrilla attacks have become more frequent, and Ukrainian intelligence suggests that Crimea will be the next target, and the Kerch bridge, which is already often the target of Ukrainian sabotage, is likely to be destroyed in the near future. While a conventional offensive to retake Crimea seems ambitious, the movement of Russian forces to strengthen Donbass and Kursk could open the door to an increase in Ukraine's covert operations on the peninsula, the authors of the material say.
