According to the analysts of the monitoring portal DeepState, the Ukrainian military has completed the clearing of the Russian occupiers of the area near the settlements of Mala Loknya and Pogrebka, north of Suja in the Kursk region.
Points of attention
- The Armed Forces of Ukraine have completed the clearing of the northern regions of Kurshchyna from Russian invaders, focusing on Mala Lokna and Pogrebki.
- Sociologists from the Russian 'Levada Center' report 94% awareness of the offensive's success in Kurshchyna among Russians, with concerns about civilian casualties, attacks on Russian territory, and governmental unpreparedness.
- Military historian Lucian Staiano-Daniels highlights Ukraine's transformation of the war of attrition into a war of maneuver post-clearing in Kurshchyna, potentially encircling Russian occupiers.
- Destroying bridges across the Seim River indicates Ukraine's intent to surround Russian forces in the region, following historical parallels to successful military operations with proper goals and preparations.
- The invasion like the Kursk operation can demonstrate the enemy's inability to ensure security on its own territory, leading to panicked decision-making and potential success when carried out strategically.
What is known about the recent successes of the Kursk operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
The Defense Forces have finished clearing along the Mala Loknya-Pogrebka line, analysts note.
At the same time, analysts draw attention to the fact that in Donbas, the Russian invaders captured Dolynivka and advanced near Makiivka and Toretsk.
How Russia treats the Kursk operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
Sociologists from the Russian "Levada Center" recorded that 94% of Russians are aware of the success of the offensive of the Armed Forces in Kurshchyna, but 46% of Russians are not aware of the details of what is happening in the region.
91% of respondents are worried about actions in their border area.
Among the reasons that cause concern among citizens of the Russian Federation:
victims among the civilian population — 41%,
attack on the territory of Russia — 25%,
weakness and unpreparedness of the authorities — 11%.
The survey of "Levada-Center" took place from August 22 to 28. 1,619 Russians over the age of 18 took part in it. The research was conducted at the respondents' homes, the statistical error does not exceed 3.4%.
According to military historian Lucian Staiano-Daniels in an article for Foreign Policy, the successful Kursk operation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces turned Russia's war of attrition against Ukraine into a war of maneuver with sudden offensive actions.
Stayano-Daniels emphasizes that the destruction of the bridges across the Seim River by the Ukrainian Armed Forces demonstrates the desire of the Ukrainian military to surround the forces of the Russian occupiers in the area.
And if the Ukrainians succeed in this, they can either gain a foothold in the Russian buffer zone along the border, or move further north, the historian suggests.
At the same time, the expert draws parallels with three similar military operations of the Middle Ages and early modern times:
The campaign preceding the Battle of Cres during the Hundred Years' War;
The conflict between Sweden and Denmark at the end of the Thirty Years' War;
The attack of the army of the Holy Roman Empire on Pomerania.
One of the important goals of a raid on enemy territory is to humiliate him. An invasion like Kursk demonstrates that the enemy cannot perform one of the primary functions of government—security—on its own territory. A panicked and angry enemy can now make rash, counterproductive decisions, - emphasizes Staiano-Daniels.
According to the historian, if the invasion of the enemy's territory has appropriate goals and is carried out with preparation and skill, it is usually successful.
As in the past, the military context is also often shaped by political decisions. Like all coalitions, Ukraine and its Western supporters, above all the United States, had to reach restrictive compromises. As in all coalitions, their political goals do not completely coincide. Past wars offer ominous warnings, but let's see if the lack of full US support will fatally limit Ukraine, the analyst emphasizes.
