Moscow does not have a single plan of action - it is simultaneously working on several options for the development of events, from continuing hostilities to freezing the conflict and hybrid aggression against NATO. This was stated by the head of the Center for Countering Disinformation of the National Security and Defense Council Andriy Kovalenko.
Points of attention
- Russia is contemplating three scenarios for continuing the war with Ukraine, including a full-scale conflict until 2028 and hybrid aggression against NATO.
- There is a possibility of Moscow moving towards a ceasefire and freezing of the conflict, with groundwork already being laid for such a scenario through propaganda tactics.
Russia has developed three scenarios for continuing the war against Ukraine
The first scenario is the continuation of a full-scale war until at least 2028. Russia is now betting on a spring-summer assault this year.
However, such a scenario is impossible without a new wave of mobilization in Russia, says the head of the Central Military Commission.
The second option is a gradual "drift" towards a ceasefire and freezing of the conflict.
The ground is already being prepared for it: Kremlin propagandists are forming a narrative that the head of the Kremlin, Putin, was poorly informed about the situation on the front, and the war "came to a standstill due to the actions of generals who lied."
The third scenario is the continuation of the war against Ukraine with a parallel transition to a hybrid war with NATO closer to 2028. These could be aggressive actions against the Baltic countries.
Specific tools that Moscow is considering:
drone strikes on the Baltic countries;
the deployment of small sabotage groups — 20 people each — to conduct operations in their territories;
information pressure around the topic of "NATO military plants that threaten Russia."
In parallel, a bill is being promoted in Russia that would allow the army to be used in other countries for the so-called "protection of Russian citizens."
