According to the Prime Minister of the Netherlands, Mark Rutte, Brussels should support Ukraine with a firm decision on military aid this week.
What is known about the decision of the EU regarding further assistance to Ukraine
Given the problems in the United States, where new money is blocked, it is very important that we do not have a double block against Ukraine. We need to agree on the monetary part, because it is extremely important to move forward as a state, as well as in military efforts, Rutte said Rutte.
The leaders of the EU countries will meet on Thursday and Friday, December 14-15, to develop a proposal to replenish the European Peace Fund, which is used to partially reimburse states for the costs of supplying weapons to Ukraine, by 5 billion euros.
But with Germany facing a budget crisis and Hungary threatening a veto, the outcome of this week's talks is not yet clear.
What is known about forecasts regarding further international support for Ukraine
According to the forecasts of analysts of the Fitch rating agency, next year, international support for Ukraine will be lower than this year.
However, analysts predict a slight decline in support.
Despite political risks regarding the approval of the promised funding, the budget aid for 2024 will be only slightly lower than the $43 billion planned for 2023, the agency's analysts said in a report.
In particular, it is noted that in the long term, Ukraine should receive from the EU about 50 billion euros in military aid until 2027, as well as guarantees regarding financing from the IMF and other international donors.
The conditions of the IMF at the first stage of the program are insignificant, and we see a limited risk that they will prevent the disbursement of the IFM funds next year, the forecast states.
However, analysts note significant uncertainty regarding support for Ukraine in 2025 and beyond.
We see greater funding uncertainty from 2025, partly due to the US election cycle, the possibility of greater donor fatigue, residual risks to EU funding plans and the likelihood that the domestic banking sector will not grow further to increase its public debt, the agency's forecast emphasizes.
Fitch forecasts public debt to rise to 94.5% of GDP at the end of 2024 from 84.1% at the end of 2023 (and 48.9% at the end of 2021), well above the average for a “B", "C" or "D" ranks, which are up to 70.7%.
The forecasts do not include a potential debt restructuring procedure, the parameters of which remain uncertain.
