According to Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, it would be much more difficult for Russia to wage an unleashed criminal war against Ukraine in the absence of assistance from China.
Points of attention
- Danish Prime Minister highlights the significant role of China in enabling Russia to conduct a criminal war against Ukraine.
- Europe is urged to decrease reliance on China and Russia in technology and prioritize the development of its own technological capabilities.
- The Russian shadow fleet plays a crucial role in circumventing Western sanctions and boosting oil exports, with Dubai and Hong Kong-based companies being key players.
- Russia's manipulation of the oil market through the shadow fleet demonstrates the need for more effective sanctions and vigilance against such deceptive practices.
- The majority of Russia's oil and gas revenues come from the oil sector, showcasing the country's heavy reliance on energy resources for economic sustenance.
Frederiksen calls on the EU to reduce its dependence on China and the Russian Federation
The Prime Minister of Denmark noted that Europe should get rid of its dependence on China in technology and demonstrate the learning of lessons from dependence on other countries, as was the case with dependence on gas from the Russian Federation.
I don't think that Russia could continue this full-scale war and at the same time act as it does in other regions of the world without China's help, Frederiksen emphasizes.
She noted that EU countries should invest more in the development of their own technologies.
However, the Danish Prime Minister did not say anything about the need for trade restrictions between the EU and China.
Frederiksen also said Denmark is pushing for the EU to act against Russia's shadow fleet — ships used by Moscow to circumvent Western sanctions — that help support its economy and the war in Ukraine.
How Russia succeeded in leveling the oil price ceiling introduced by the West with the help of the shadow fleet
According to the co-founder of the Ukrainian Institute for the Future, Anatoliy Amelin, the price ceiling for the sale of Russian oil introduced by Western countries has practically ceased to operate, because almost all Russian oil is transported by ships of the so-called "shadow fleet", which are insured by Western companies.
The Shadow Fleet has allowed Russia to create a parallel shipping structure that can withstand the changing tactics and focus of Western sanctions, with hundreds of tankers of opaque ownership using complex routes. The Windward company estimates that this fleet has already grown to 1,800 vessels last year. According to estimates, there are 12,300 oil tankers in the world today. This means that Russia controls almost 15% of the world's oil tanker fleet. Sanctions lag far behind Russia's schemes and innovations. And the most important role in this is played by the know-how copied in Iran - the "shadow fleet". Every month, an additional 25 to 35 ships are sold to the shadow fleet, - explains Amelin.
The analyst refers to the information of Bloomberg journalists, according to which, currently, six little-known companies, including those created less than a year ago, participate in the export of about 1.5 million barrels of oil per day from Russia.
Among these companies are three from Dubai - Coral Energy, Nord Axis Ltd and QR Trading and two from Hong Kong - Concept Oil Services and Bellatrix Energy.
Russia's federal revenues rose to a record $320 billion in 2023 and are set to grow even more. Oil exports amounted to 234.3 million tons, 82% of oil exports in 2023 fell on the Asia-Pacific region. According to some analysts, about a third of the money was spent on the war in Ukraine last year, and most of it will be used to finance the war in 2024. The oil sector accounts for about 80% of the oil and gas sector's revenues — according to Rosstat data and estimates by the Central Bank of Russia, the share of the oil and gas sector in Russia's GDP in 2023 was about 27-28%. In eight regions of the Russian Federation, almost half of the economy is oil and gas production, Amelin emphasized.
