In the Budget Declaration for 2025-2027, the Cabinet of Ministers predicts a slowdown in economic growth in 2025 and an acceleration in the following years. The dollar will increase by 10% in 2025.
Points of attention
- The government predicts a slowdown in the growth of the Ukrainian economy in 2025 and an increase in GDP in the following years.
- According to the government's declaration, the dollar exchange rate may increase by 10% in 2025.
- The labour shortage seriously threatens the Ukrainian economy, particularly business.
- Surveys have shown that half of Ukrainian entrepreneurs face the labour shortage problem.
- A shortage of able-bodied workers prompts the government to adopt measures like the mobilisation bill to ensure effective wartime operations.
What awaits Ukraine's economy?
According to the published document, the government expects GDP growth:
in 2025 by 2.7%,
in 2026 by 7.5%,
in 2027 by 6.2%.
Ukraine's GDP growth forecast for 2024, at 4.6%, was included in the state budget for this year and did not change.
In addition, the government expects an increase in the average dollar exchange rate:
in 2025 to 45 hryvnias (45.6 as of December),
in 2026 to 46.5 hryvnias (45.9 in December),
in 2027 to 46.4 hryvnias (46.2 as of December).
The budget for 2024 includes the average December rates of 40.7 UAH/dollar and 42.1 UAH/dollar.
The Cabinet of Ministers also forecasts an increase in consumer prices (December to December):
in 2025 by 9.5%
in 2026 by 10.4%
in 2027 by 5.9%.
How the labour shortage threatens to shrink the Ukrainian economy
Journalists of the publication refer to a survey conducted by the Kyiv Institute of Economic Research and PolConsultationsltation at the beginning of the year.
It is noted that the problem of labour shortage ranks second after the increase in costs of Ukrainian companies.
About half of the surveyed Ukrainian entrepreneurs complain about the labour shortage.
The shortage of personnel has become one of the main problems of business, because the search for a job takes more and more energy from managers. During the war, wages exceeded the level before the Russian invasion in February 2022. The bill on mobilisation, which entered into force last month, aims to replenish the ranks of the Ukrainian army with hundreds of thousands of servicemen. However, the lack of able-bodied men and women is a blow to large and small businesses, which are the basis of the wartime economy, the publication says.
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