The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) improved its inflation expectations for 2024 from 9.8% to 8.6%. Regulator representatives announced this during a briefing on monetary policy.
Inflation in 2024. What should Ukrainians prepare for
The NBU expects inflation to fluctuate within the target range of 5% ± 1 c. in the coming months.
The regulator's press service also warns that in the second half of the year, it will accelerate somewhat due to the exhaustion of the effects of last year's high harvests.
It is also essential to understand that price pressures will come from a further recovery in consumer demand and a pass-through of business costs to consumer prices, mainly due to still high-security risks and rising wages.
According to the National Bank team, inflation will remain under control and will be 8.6% at the end of the year.
What could be the inflation in Ukraine in 2025
The NBU predicts that inflation may return to the target range as early as next year, slowing down to 5.8% at the end of 2025.
As for 2026, there is a high probability of a return to the 5% target.
This will primarily be facilitated by the reduction of security risks assumed in the forecast. This will provide an overall improvement in expectations, as well as allow for better logistics and production processes. The NBU's interest rate and currency policy measures will remain important factors in reducing price pressure, the regulator's press service explains.
The NBU kept the interest rate at 15%
On January 25, it was also officially announced that the regulator's management decided to leave the discount rate at 15%.
This decision is consistent with the need to further maintain exchange rate stability, maintain moderate inflation in 2024 and bring it to the target range of 5% ± 1 in.p. on the horizon of monetary policy, — explained the head of the NBU board Andriy Pyshnyi.
