Ukraine's National Bank forecasts unemployment decrease and wages increase amid Russia's invasion
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Economics
Publication date

Ukraine's National Bank forecasts unemployment decrease and wages increase amid Russia's invasion

NBU
labour market

The National Bank of Ukraine promises to reduce unemployment and increase wages over the next two years, even despite the war with Russia.

What is the current situation on the Ukrainian labour market

The regulator draws attention to the fact that the recovery of Ukraine's economy, even against the background of the war, pushes businesses to search for new employees more actively.

This fact confirms the rapid growth of the number of vacancies on job search sites.

In addition, it is emphasized that the total number of resumes has significantly decreased, and businesses are concerned about the severe shortage of personnel.

What is essential to understand is that the situation in work specialities, logisticians, and retail workers has significantly worsened.

Why are there difficulties with finding personnel? The key factor is the consequences of the war, primarily migration and mobilization. In addition, the experience, skills and requirements of candidates often do not match the vacancies. As a result, the competition for qualified workers increases and, accordingly, employers raise wages, explains the National Bank.

How will the labour market in Ukraine change

The National Bank of Ukraine officially warned that due to the full-scale invasion of Russia, the challenging situation in the labour market would continue for a long time.

Moreover, it isessentialt to understand that at the stage of the country's reconstruction, the competition for new employees will intensify again.

Despite this, it will cause a gradual decrease in unemployment—from 14.2% in 2024 to 11.9% in 2025.

In 2026, the National Bank predicts that the unemployment rate will decrease to 10.6%.

In addition, real wages are expected to increase sharply. According to the NBU forecast, they will exceed the pre-war level by 2025.

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