Russian dictator Putin is "paranoid" about the West's alleged intention to limit Russia's power in the world, and this has led him to spend historically record amounts on militarisation.
Why Putin has developed "paranoid" fear
According to the US Director of National Intelligence, Avril Haines, Putin continues to believe that Russia is under threat, and almost certainly assumes that a larger, better-equipped military will convey this message to Western and domestic audiences.
He continues to see NATO expansion and Western support for Ukraine as reinforcing his long-held belief that the United States and Europe are seeking to limit Russia's power," said Avril Haines.
According to Haines, this is already "a certain paranoia".
At the same time, the official believes that NATO's actions are actually aimed at reassuring Russia of the opposite, but Putin's decisions accelerated the events he was trying to avoid, including the expansion of the alliance, when Finland and Sweden, which had remained neutral for decades, joined NATO.
According to Haines, the Kremlin leader has increased defence spending to almost 7% of Russia's GDP, almost double the historical average, and the Russian defence budget now accounts for about 25% of all federal spending.
Putin has found someone to punish for the Russian army's defeats in Ukraine
Recent developments in Russian politics confirm insider reports that dictator Vladimir Putin has decided to take revenge on Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu for the failures of Russian soldiers on the Ukrainian front.
The ISW team drew attention to the fact that on 2 May, the illegitimate Russian president met with the governor of the Tula region, affiliated with the Wagner PMC, Alexei Dyumin.
According to US analysts, this confirms rumours that Putin wants to reduce Shoigu's power, balance him with his competitors and punish him for the Russian military's failures in the war against Ukraine.
Dyumin repeatedly sided with Prigozhin in 2022 and 2023, hoping to replace Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu himself.
