The US permission to strike Russia with American weapons reduced the size of the aggressor's "untouchable" territory by 16%.
Points of attention
- Ukraine is prohibited from using anti-aircraft missile systems on a significant territory of the Russian Federation, which limits its ability to strike.
- The analysis shows that the AFU can hit military targets in certain regions of Russia, but the depth of the strikes is limited.
- Other Western countries are actively discussing the possibility of allowing the Armed Forces of Ukraine to strike the territory of the Russian Federation with Western weapons.
The US permission to strike Russia reduced the aggressor's "untouchable territory" by 16%
It is noted that the US authorization created a relatively large area in which the Defence Forces have the right to strike with Western weapons.
At the same time, certain restrictions on the types of American weapons limited the ability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to strike in areas far from the border with Ukraine, which Russia uses to cover its own combat forces, administrative bodies, logistics and rear support.
The permission of the USA to strike the territory of the Russian Federation with American weapons to hit some military facilities on a small section of the Ukrainian-Russian border reduced the size of the land-based Russian "untouched" territory by a maximum of 16%. However, US policy allows the aggressor to retain as little as 84% of ground defense. Ukraine is prohibited from using anti-aircraft missile systems in the rest of Russia's territory, which still protects the vast majority of its operational and deep rear, the report said.
ISW analysts assume that the Armed Forces of Ukraine can hit all legitimate military targets within the range of multiple rocket launchers (RSMS) in the Belgorod, Kursk, and Bryansk regions. However, the report says that the Defense Forces do not have permission for this.
High-ranking US officials have allowed Ukraine to strike Russian territory with the help of MLRS for counter-battery fire but geographically limited such attacks to the area of the state border in the Kharkiv region.
In fact, the Armed Forces have the right to strike Russian military facilities "located directly along the Ukrainian border." Instead, the Defense Forces cannot prohibit strikes against Russian military targets further behind the rear or in other areas of the Kursk and Bryansk regions, which are also within the range of the anti-missile defense system.
Statements by American officials also indicate that the Armed Forces may be limited in their ability to strike Russian military targets that are not actively participating in ground attacks and strikes against Ukraine. Thus, the reduction of the area of Russia's safe (intact) space may amount to less than 16 percent.
ISW noted that the current change in US policy, although it is a step in the right direction, cannot reduce the scope of further attacks by the aggressor on the shores of Ukraine.
At the same time, the Institute noted that the governments of Western countries support and discuss the permission of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to use Western weapons for strikes also on Russian rear operational and deep rear areas on the territory of the Russian Federation.
AFU strikes deep into Russia with Western weapons
The other day, the White House officially allowed the Armed Forces of Ukraine to use American weapons for strikes, but only in the area of the state border in the Kharkiv region. Plus, ATACMS ballistic missiles are prohibited.
One of the NATO admirals believes that Ukraine should be allowed to strike Russia with Western weapons without limiting the range.
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has hinted that Ukraine's strikes on Russia with Western weapons do not cross the supposed "red line" that would lead to the use of nuclear weapons.
The White House confirmed that the Defense Forces of Ukraine have already used partial permission to strike Russia with American weapons.
