According to the analysts of Foreign Policy, the current US approach to the criminal war unleashed by Russia against Ukraine has significant strategic omissions and risks turning this conflict into an endless one.
How US creates the risk of an endless war in Ukraine
The authors of the material point out that although the US aid made it possible to avoid the worst scenarios, it is still too early to rejoice.
Analysts warn that against the background of approaching elections in the USA, the approved package of aid to Ukraine may be the last.
At the same time, the approved and planned aid packages for Kyiv from Washington are mostly aimed at improving the positions of the Ukrainian military at the front with the aim of achieving slightly better positions for Ukraine during the likely negotiations.
In general, Ukraine remains the weaker side. Western aid did not change this reality. The White House presented the situation as an all-or-nothing choice: approve funding or watch Ukraine die. Such rhetoric contains eerie echoes of wars from Vietnam to Afghanistan, where the United States continued to invest resources in hopeless conflicts because no American leader wanted to take responsibility for failure, the publication emphasises.
What are the risks of the US approach to the war in Ukraine
Analysts warn that claims about the final victory of Ukraine in the criminal war unleashed by Russia remain far from reality, and political leaders in the US are still unable to answer the question of what Washington expects to achieve in Ukraine and what risks the US leadership is willing to take.
Political scientists note that any end to this war will involve diplomatic negotiations. Some conclude that if negotiations are inevitable, they should begin sooner rather than later. Others argue that Ukraine should improve its fighting position before starting negotiations. The government in Kyiv says that Russia must be completely expelled from Ukraine, including Crimea, before negotiations can begin. Some even claim that regime change in Moscow is a precondition for peace, the authors of the article note.
At the same time, the journalists of the publication support the position of the White House regarding the fact that military aid to Ukraine should be aimed at strengthening Kyiv's negotiating positions.
But here additional questions arise: how to determine when the moment of negotiations has arrived? If Ukraine continues to fight, will its bargaining power improve or decrease? Calculations are also complicated by confusion about what the US is trying to achieve in Ukraine. Some emphasise broad, universal principles, such as the protection of democracy or the protection of the international order... More sober analysts claim that US's main goal in arming Ukraine is to bleed Russia. They argue that maintaining the flow of arms allows the West to reduce Russia's military potential at a reasonable cost. However, the goal of weakening Russia implies a long-term, semi-permanent commitment to war, analysts emphasise.
The authors of the article call the current US strategy in relation to Ukraine an "excuse" that could lead to the conflict becoming endless or ending on more unfavorable terms for Ukraine and the US.
More on the topic
- Category
- World
- Publication date
- Додати до обраного
