The second year of Russia's invasion of Ukraine brought tens of thousands of new dead, wounded, kidnapped by the invaders and millions of Ukrainian refugees. Military experts summarize and analyze the main lessons of this war.
Four lessons of the full-scale Russian-Ukrainian war
"Voice of America" collected the opinions of American and European military and political analysts and boiled down to 4 key lessons.
LESSON #1: You should be determined to win
In November 2022, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced 10 points of the peace formula for Ukraine. Among them, in particular,
restoration of the territorial integrity of Ukraine,
security guarantees,
release of prisoners and deportees.
The Western Allies supported the formula. The US president often used the wording regarding the war - "We are with Ukraine for as long as it takes", and during a press conference with Zelensky in Washington in December, he used the phrase "as much as we can."
America and its allies supported Ukraine, but not very convincingly. The time of the event is to be determined.
Ben Godges
Former commander of the US Ground Forces in Europe and Africa
The inability of leaders in the West to clearly define a strategic goal is, for Godges, the biggest shortcoming
One of the biggest problems for us is that neither my president nor the chancellor of Germany actually said that "we want Ukraine to win." The failure of leaders in the West to clearly define a strategic goal is, to me, the biggest shortcoming.
Another important nuance that experts emphasize is that it should be decided what is considered a victory for Ukraine. Because even if Ukraine restores its territorial integrity, it is not a fact that this will stop the war, says Keir Giles, chief expert on Eurasia at Chatham House.
Only long-term security guarantees and guarantees that they will suffer catastrophic losses in the event of aggression will preserve the security of Ukraine and Europe in the future.
A change in Russia's attitude is needed. It should stop being confident that it can attack other countries, and secondly, that it can get away with it. Only long-term security guarantees and guarantees that they will suffer catastrophic losses in the event of aggression will preserve the security of Ukraine and Europe in the future.
Keir Giles
Security expert
But it seems far away. Against the background of a more modest than expected offensive by Ukraine in the summer of 2023 and the recent capture of Avdiyivka by Russia, it is worth considering the question of an interim victory and focusing on defense, says Robert Gates, former US Secretary of Defense, in an interview with The Washington Post.
The strategy is to help Ukraine prevent any further gains by Russia, to give the Russians every reason to believe that they will not achieve their goals. And maybe at this stage you can achieve - not necessarily a negotiated ceasefire, but essentially an actual ceasefire, in which the level of violence will be significantly reduced.
LESSON #2: Democracies are slower to help allies
Today, the issue of military aid to Ukraine is stuck in Congress. Since the beginning of the year, there is no money in the US budget for Ukraine, and the Armed Forces are dependent on the supply of weapons from America. This became one of the reasons for leaving Avdiivka, say Ukrainian politicians and Western analysts.
Western weapons became one of the decisive factors for Ukraine in this war. But it could and can be supplied many times more, says Wesley Clark, former commander of NATO's combined armed forces in Europe, in an interview with CSIS.
We talk about a rules-based world order, but we don't act accordingly. The military aid we provided was just a penny. Like, in order to send the M1 (Abrams) tank, the terrain is not suitable. Why do we sell them to Poland? These are some double standards.
Wesley Clark
Ex-commander of the combined armed forces of NATO in Europe
And while the West is pondering when, what kind of weapons to provide to Ukraine and whether it is worth it at all, Russia's allies have already established a flow of weapons. Kier Giles draws attention to this.
They may not provide the highest quality in North Korea's case, but they do provide quantity, and Iran's drone production now established in Russia also means it's a stable pipeline. This means that, unlike the USA, EU or Great Britain, supplies to Russia are virtually uninterrupted.
Robert Hamilton, a retired US Army colonel, explains that decisions in democracies are made more slowly and more complexly. But in the end, democracies have the upper hand.
Because authoritarian regimes, although they appear tough, are vulnerable. The Russian people still seem to support the war in Ukraine, but that doesn't mean they will in another two years. They have no way to express their discontent, so it tends to spill over into street protests.
By the way, according to the Miller Research Center, over the past 200 years, democracies have won 76 percent of wars against autocracies.
LESSON #3: Battles can be won without Western weapons
Despite the difficult situation for the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the land front, Ukraine achieved great success at sea. Not having its own fleet, it expelled Russia from the western part of the Black Sea. With the help of surface drones of the Magura type of its own production, it destroyed 5 Russian amphibious ships. It's worth adopting in the US Navy, says retired US Navy Rear Admiral Joe DiGuardo.
How do we (the West - ed.) overcome our own bias to use it the way the Ukrainians do - to hit targets that are vulnerable, like supply lines. This is a strategic effect with a very tactical weapon.
Ukrainians should continue to use their ingenuity. This is its strong point in the war, retired American general and ex-CIA director David Petraeus said in an interview with Voice of America in November.
The Ukrainian people have extraordinary talent and exceptional production skills. I think all of this, among other things, will have huge implications for Ukraine after this conflict, as I suspect that some European security and defense firms are going to send at least some of their production and assembly to Ukraine.
David Petraeus
Former director of the CIA
LESSON #4: Quantity matters
According to the Armed Forces, the Russians lost more than 47,000 soldiers storming Avdiivka alone. Back in November, in an interview with The Economist, General Valery Zaluzhnyi admitted that he was wrong about Russia. Like, she will retreat after suffering heavy losses.
A war of attrition has begun - the West, which supports Ukraine, seems not to have realized it yet, says Robert Hamilton.
As a rule, we prefer sophisticated technological solutions to military problems, long-range high-precision strikes, maneuvers of armored vehicles. But in this war, we saw that in the 21st century, two armies are fighting the trench warfare of the early 20th century, where it is difficult to maneuver and capture large areas.
In this war of attrition, numbers of weapons and men matter, experts say. And if superiority in weapons can be achieved with the support of the West, then the allies will not help with people. Retired US General Ben Godges advises to change the approach to mobilization.
And these people could come back out of a sense of duty, but also because they would be assured that they would be properly recruited into the army, if they were wounded or killed, their family would be taken care of, just like in the US or Britain. And this is a political problem that the government must solve.
What conclusions did Podolyak name during the two years of the Russian Federation's war against Ukraine
Mykhailo Podolyak, adviser to the head of the President's Office, said that Ukraine can draw three conclusions based on the results of two years of full-scale war unleashed by Russia.
In his opinion, based on the results of the two years of the great war, three conclusions should be drawn:
The Russian Federation must, can and must lose. Otherwise, there will be no peace, no rules and law, no future.
A serial and mass murderer who loves to kill and loves to destroy can never be trusted. The Russian Federation is a country that can exist only by destroying other people's lives.
The decision, which was not taken in time (in 2014, after the annexation of Crimea and the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine), will necessarily provoke a much greater tragedy.
More on the topic
- Category
- Ukraine
- Publication date
- Додати до обраного
