The probability that the West, led by the USA, will attempt to assassinate the illegitimate president of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, is extremely low. This opinion was expressed by Douglas London, a professor of intelligence studies at the School of Diplomatic Service of Georgetown University (USA).
Points of attention
- An attempt on Putin may be organized by the internal opposition of the Russian Federation, and not by the West.
- The US avoids the risk of eliminating Putin due to the presence of nuclear weapons in the Russian Federation.
- The expert notes that the development of events will depend on the balance of risks and benefits for the US and its allies.
Putin is currently not a target for Ukraine's allies
As the expert notes, the development of events in this matter will depend on the balance of potential risks and benefits.
The US and partners will make decisions by trying to find answers to the following important questions:
whether the Russian threat to the United States and its allies will diminish;
will Russia withdraw troops from Ukraine;
will the Russian Federation become more hostile and less predictable.
The professor draws attention to the fact that the Russian dictator, although prone to provocations, threats and intimidation, is actually an extremely predictable politician.
An attempt on Putin may be organized by the Russian opposition
It is also important to understand that the United States has the experience of successful and unsuccessful attempts on the first persons of foreign countries — in Iran, Chile and Cuba.
It is also impossible to ignore the fact that the operations aimed at eliminating Mohammad Mosaddiq in Iran, Salvador Allende in Chile, and Castro in Cuba were implemented precisely by the internal opposition of these countries, and the United States then only partially helped them. According to Douglas London, the American government will currently do everything possible to maintain the current status quo with the perceived adversary.
The logic of this approach is illustrated by the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in Iraq, which provoked chaos in the Middle East and the emergence of new powerful terrorist movements, such as the Islamic State. Even the "Arab Spring" is considered a direct consequence of the American invasion of Iraq.
The USA also does not forget that the Russian Federation has nuclear weapons, so the scenario with the elimination of Putin is extremely risky for them.
