Newly elected US President Donald Trump may realize in six months that trying to negotiate with Russia is a waste of time, noted Mykhailo Samus, director of the New Geopolitics Research Network platform.
Points of attention
- Trump may realize that negotiations with Russia are a futile waste of time due to the active policy of Russian troops at the front.
- An important aspect of the development of the situation is the opportunity to demonstrate victory on the battlefield, which will strengthen Putin's position.
- Trump could use his trump card to stop the war by imposing sanctions on Russian oil, which would make continuing the conflict unprofitable for Russia.
- It is predicted that a peace agreement between Kyiv and Moscow in 2025 could be disastrous if Trump and the EU do not continue to support Ukraine.
Trump will gradually realize that negotiations with the Russians are a futile waste of time
As noted by the director of the New Geopolitics Research Network platform, Mykhailo Samus, now the Russian military will throw all their resources at the front, although there are still many of these resources.
But they will try to continue to throw them in order to achieve breakthroughs on the front. They will not succeed. And the Ukrainian army, in certain sections of the front, will obviously begin to bother the Russians in the same way and move on to counterattacks. We will see how this will happen. But clearly, by January 20, the Russians will not be able to show anything so extraordinary that Putin will brag, - believes Samus.
At the same time, in his opinion, the Russians will continue to maintain their offensive pace.
He recalled the talks in Minsk in February 2015, where the leaders of Ukraine, Germany, France, and Russia held hours-long negotiations because Kremlin dictator Vladimir Putin was waiting for Debaltseve to be cut off to show a military victory.
Similarly, Putin will drag out negotiations with Trump as much as possible, trying to achieve, for example, the occupation of Pokrovsk. That is, it will be important for him, - said Samus.
According to the expert, this window of opportunity for the Russians is closing, but Putin will try his best to demonstrate that he continues to win on the battlefield, and this "will be one of the important aspects of the development of the situation in 2025."
In any case, the first half of the year... Trump will gradually understand that negotiating with the Russians is a completely futile waste of time. He will get there in about six months, but these six months will be difficult precisely because the Russians will try to break through the front and show that they are, after all, winning, - the expert noted.
Trump knows how to stop Putin
The forecast was made by Cory Shake, senior fellow and director of foreign and defense policy research at the American Enterprise Institute.
In his opinion, a peace agreement between Kyiv and Moscow in 2025 will be catastrophic only if Trump and European allies stop assisting Ukraine.
However, the expert believes that the new US president will still use his powerful trump card to stop the war.
The only possible change to the rules of the game is for the Trump administration to impose sanctions on Russian oil, which would make continuing the war too expensive for Russia, emphasized Cory Sheik.
