Ukraine systematically destroys Russian air defence in the temporarily occupied Crimea but is in no hurry to destroy the bridge.
Points of attention
- The Ukrainian Armed Forces under the DIU leadership are conducting a strategic operation to destroy the Russian air defence system in Crimea before the destruction of the Crimean Bridge.
- The destruction of the Crimean Bridge requires a large military power, so the lack of nuclear weapons prevents Ukraine from destroying the bridge.
- The Ukrainian military can use American long-range missiles and other means to blow up the bridge and force the occupiers to spend time rebuilding it.
- The Russian occupiers have alternative ways of crossing the Kerch Strait and building a railway from the Rostov region to the occupied Crimea.
- The destruction of the Crimean bridge and alternative routes for the Russian occupiers will cause difficulties in providing the army and logistics on the peninsula.
Why AFU is not hurrying to destroy the Crimean bridge
It's not just like that, it's a targeted campaign in which all our branches of the military are involved, under the coordination of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (DIU). This is a very strategic operation. We realised last year that air defence is not a wagon for the Russians. They had enough air defence to cover Moscow, the front line, unfortunately, very densely, and the Crimean peninsula. And in order to accomplish even this task, they took air defence from the Arctic, they took the last S-300 from the Kuriliam islands last year. This is something that was impossible to imagine during the scoop, — said Dykyy.
According to Dykyy, Ukraine is not destroying the Crimean Bridge, as it can destroy the Russian air defence system.
What is happening now, they have a sacred object — the Crimean Bridge. It is really strategically important — even though we have tweaked it, the bandwidth is much lower than it was, but it is not zero. Therefore, it is very important for them. But it is also a politically important object — it is a symbol of Putin's Russia. They are very afraid that we will kill him. And we don't kill him, we turned him into bait. We turned Crimea into such a large Chornobaivka of Russian air defence. We are destroying air defence warfare systems covering the Crimean bridge, but we are not hitting the bridge, we are waiting for the next anti-aircraft to arrive, — explained Dykyy.
He added that thanks to the fact that the Russians are constantly bringing new air defence systems to Crimea, and Ukraine is destroying them, large strategic areas on the territory of the Russian Federation currently have problems with cover, which at the same time is being used by Ukraine, driving the Kremlin into a trap.
We use the Crimean bridge as bait and destroy their air defence on an industrial scale, realising that it is very infinite. And then they open up (space) and fly our cheap drones to the airfields, where strategic planes for them are destroyed. Let me remind you that recently two Su-57s were destroyed, and there are only ten of them in Russia. That is, we attack them with cheap drones, and the airfield security repels the attack with Kalashnikov machine gun. If they do not have a complex even for such an airfield, then this is an indicator. They physically do not have anti-aircraft defense against oil plants, but this is their blood, this is what this regime is based on, — said Dykyy.
What consequences will the destruction of the Crimean bridge have for the occupying army on the peninsula?
According to military analyst Denys Popovych on Radio NV, Ukraine currently does not have the weapons to eradicate the Crimean Bridge.
The so-called Crimean bridge, put it out of order for a considerable period of time so that nothing could move on it — neither trains nor motor vehicles. It must be destroyed. It is extremely difficult to completely destroy it, to wipe it off the face of the earth, for this nuclear weapons are necessary, to destroy it with tactical nuclear weapons, to completely level it, let's say. We do not have such weapons, — Popovych notes.
The analyst emphasised that, on the other hand, the Ukrainian military can attack the bridge with a large number of American ATACMS long-range missiles, as well as with all other available missiles and drones, to blow it up from below.
It will force the Russian occupiers to spend much time on its restoration.
The analyst emphasised that the Russian occupiers still had several alternative options in the event of the bridge's destruction.
The first is a ferry crossing across the Kerch Strait, through which the occupiers could transfer equipment, material and technical means and everything necessary to support their army.
However, at the end of May, the Ukrainian military struck this crossing, effectively reducing this alternative to zero.
Another option for the Russians was large landing ships, with the help of which they also tried to establish logistics. However, the expert noted, "We drowned them a little and "rolled" them a little.
And the most alarming option is the construction of a railway across the land, in the occupied Azov region. This railway should be extended from the Rostov region to the occupied Crimea, using the railway tracks that were already available in the occupied territory of the Zaporizhzhia region, Popovych warns.
According to him, even if the Crimean bridge is destroyed and other alternative routes are eliminated, the Russians still have hope for a logistical connection by land.
He noted that it would be difficult to destroy it, even if ATACMS reached there.
The railway is a canvas that recovers very quickly. We need to think about how to make it inoperable for a fairly significant period of time, — explains the analyst.
In addition, the expert noted that the Russians would protect the railway from sabotage.
They also have special armored trains, which they used to protect railway tracks. That is, this armored train can run on this railway, track sabotage groups, take fire on itself, if anything. That is, they will take measures. And this should not be discounted either, — emphasises Popovych.
