Mykhailo Samus, Head of the New Geopolitics Research Network, noted that the aggressor country Russia had plans to attack the regions, but did not have and does not have the necessary human and material resources to do so.
Should we expect an offensive by the Russian army towards Kharkiv and Sumy?
The Russians have plans. They have plans for both Kyiv and Lviv. Because they would not have started their war if they did not have already formed maps, plans, etc. However, all these plans were destroyed by the Ukrainian army in February-March 2022, the analyst explains.
He stressed that the Kremlin has plans for an offensive in the direction of Kharkiv and Sumy, but does not have the proper strike groups that could be involved in the relevant offensive operations.
This needs to be said right away. Because our information space is now often reinforcing the narrative that the Russians are already allegedly ready to conduct an operation in the direction of Sumy, the northern regions, Chernihiv or even Kharkiv. Elon Musk is even talking about Odesa. In fact, they do not have any strike groups, they have plans, the analyst emphasises.
Are there any signs that the Russian army is preparing to attack Kharkiv and Sumy?
Meanwhile, according to military and political analyst Oleksandr Musienko, the Russian occupiers are currently completing the construction of a runway at the airfield in Belgorod region, where military transport aircraft with personnel will land.
This means that they are preparing to deploy manpower. They are considering the scenario of preparing and jumping up certain groups, possibly airborne troops or others. In order for them to move faster from here. To solve the logistics issue, which is not so simple. We hope that it will be possible to hit this airfield, Musiyenko said.
According to him, the enemy continues to form the Sever group of troops in the Belgorod region and the Kursk strike group in the Kursk region.
The analyst emphasises that the number of Russian occupants in the Belgorod region is increasing, which may indicate preparations for a possible offensive.
In other words, compared to last week, this week has seen the formation of a small, but striking group of troops with an eye on Sumy and Kharkiv regions. We just need to make a distinction here: it does not mean Kharkiv and it does not mean Sumy. Because these are different things. Because the direction of the enemy's actions and strikes may not be to go to Kharkiv — no. They will not attack the regional centre, because there are not enough forces, Musienko explains.
According to him, the goal of the Russian occupiers is to periodically raid the territory of Ukraine and conduct sabotage operations.
On 7 May, Putin will be inaugurated. He will announce that Ukraine is launching strikes on Russian territory, so he is right about the sanitary zone. We need to launch to Sumy region to create this sanitary zone and to Kharkiv region in the same way, the analyst said.
The Russians also want to take advantage of the "chance" to pull back Ukrainian forces and equipment while Western assistance arrives.
According to the Russian command, they need to pull us to the north. They need to create a dilemma, while the aid is coming in, where we should fight. Because it can be difficult to fight in any place. And the result and direction of the main attack should be Donetsk region. According to the Russian plan, this should allow them to capture the entire Donetsk region. In the East, I think they have a programme to capture the entire Donetsk region as a result of this offensive campaign. This is the main programme and the main direction of the attack, Musiyenko said.
In his opinion, the criminal army of Russia is already fighting to the limit of its capabilities.
Russia now wants to exhaust our units so that their exhausted units, due to their greater numbers, will eventually have more chances. They see a window of opportunity for themselves in May-June, at most the first half of July, the analyst stressed.
According to him, Ukraine has powerful defence lines, but they need to be attacked from the air.
He added that in forecasting the arrival of F-16s, which Ukraine is very much looking forward to and hoping for, we need to look at the delivery time of the Patriot.
Today we have the most likely and correct forecast in this regard, which we should be guided by. The delivery of Patriot is tied to the delivery of aircraft. Until more systems are delivered to cover these aircraft, there will be no more, Musienko explained.
