According to British intelligence, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin will have fewer and fewer resources in the future to maintain the Russian army's spending at a high level.
Points of attention
- Inflation in Russia is on the rise, and long-term inflationary pressures could affect the country's ability to sustain high defense spending.
- Labor shortages and high government spending further compound the economic challenges facing Russia, potentially impacting military capabilities.
The state of the Russian economy continues to deteriorate
According to the UK Ministry of Defence, as long as interest rates remain high, the number of corporate bankruptcies in Russia is likely to increase.
Back in the fall of last year, the ruble collapsed to its lowest level since the beginning of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 (114 per US dollar).
However, the Russian currency was able to strengthen to a high of 81 per US dollar in March 2025.
The strengthening of the ruble will most likely lead to a reduction in federal revenues from oil and gas in ruble terms, which will increase pressure on the federal deficit, British intelligence officials emphasize.
We also cannot ignore the fact that inflation in Russia continues to rise.
Against this backdrop, labor shortages, as well as high government spending, indicate that inflation will remain above the Central Bank of the Russian Federation's target of 4 percent through 2025.
Long-term inflationary pressures are likely to put increased pressure on Russia's ability to maintain high defense spending, the UK Ministry of Defense emphasizes.
