Political commentator Oleksandr J. Motyl points out that official Beijing does not want Russia to lose in the war against Ukraine, but it also does not want Vladimir Putin to win unconditionally. Xi Jinping's key goal is to exhaust and weaken the aggressor country as much as possible.
Points of attention
- China's concerns extend beyond the immediate conflict in Ukraine, as it fears potential Russian expansion into Northern Kazakhstan, something that would not be favorable to Chinese interests.
- Despite not openly siding against Russia, China's nuanced approach reflects its strategic calculations to safeguard its own security and regional influence in the face of a powerful neighbor.
What is China really seeking?
According to the expert, the Chinese government has always known and realized that the biggest threat to it is Russia, not the United States.
America is not in the neighborhood and is not engaged in a grueling war. Despite the loud statements of the Trump administration, it has not yet resorted to biting... On the contrary, Russia represents a much more immediate security problem for China, and perhaps even a threat, — emphasized Alexander J. Motyl.
The political observer also suggested that there are 3 scenarios for the end of the Russian-Ukrainian war in total, but only one of them is beneficial for official Beijing.
If Putin occupies Ukraine, he will also try to annex Northern Kazakhstan, and China will definitely not like that.
Another scenario is that Russia will be defeated. This will trigger a whole series of extremely destabilizing scenarios, also disadvantageous for China.
"The most advantageous scenario for China is one in which Russia wins but is significantly weakened. A protracted, exhausting war distracts the United States and destabilizes the West, thereby strengthening China's influence," the analyst warned.
