Former British army officer Colonel Richard Kemp writes in a column for the British publication The Telegraph that Putin's war against Ukraine is moving to the countries of Africa and the Middle East. At the same time, the special forces of the Main Directorate of Intelligence do not lose any chance for operations against Russian formations and their allies.
Points of attention
- Ukrainian special forces of the GUR are actively reducing the Russian military potential in the African region.
- Putin's war against Ukraine is expanding to Africa and the Middle East, where there is an active struggle for strategic resources.
- Ukraine uses its own special forces and intelligence to carry out attacks on Russian mercenaries.
- The countries of the Middle East are beginning to realize the limited capabilities of Russian military power.
Colonel Kemp analyzed the "second front" of the Russian Federation's war against Ukraine in Africa and the Middle East
In a war where the country's survival is at stake, Ukrainian troops have no other choice but to beat the enemy wherever they can, the analyst believes.
Putin's war against Ukraine and the West spilled over into Africa and the Middle East. Kyiv recently claimed to have provided rebel groups in Mali with intelligence that led to an attack on Russian mercenaries by the Wagner Group that reportedly killed 84 people.
Richard Kemp
Retired British Army Colonel
Kemp mentioned that Wagner PMC participated in the war against Ukraine until its now-deceased leader Yevgeny Prigozhin staged a failed coup against the Kremlin last year. Since then, they have expanded into the Sahel and Central Africa.
Waging a grueling war against Russian aggression, Ukraine suffered from restrictions on the use of ammunition from the West to attack Russian territory. However, Kyiv participated in the fight against the Russians wherever it could, using its own drones as well as ground forces. This had a limited effect, but diverted some Russian defense assets from the front and also provided an important boost to Ukrainian morale.
Meanwhile, Kemp says, Kyiv was looking further afield for military opportunities, perhaps echoing Churchill's Office of Special Operations, which sent military operatives to create a "second front" in Europe before D-Day arrived.
Since at least last year, Ukrainian special forces have been trying to damage Russian military capabilities by attacking elsewhere in the world.
In May, General Kyrylo Budanov, head of military intelligence of Ukraine, said:
We are conducting operations aimed at reducing Russian military capabilities wherever possible.
Kyrylo Budanov
Head of DIU
Colonel Kemp recalled that this includes Sudan, where Russian mercenaries are supporting the Rapid Support Force of the rebels, who have been fighting against government forces since last spring. Moscow's main goal was to secure supplies of gold, which were facilitated by the rebels to wage war in Ukraine, bypassing Western sanctions. Working to cut off those supplies, Ukraine has provided government forces with drones and military training, and Ukrainian special forces have reportedly carried out attacks against Russian mercenaries.
The picture is changing now that Russia appears to have switched sides in the civil war to gain access to a naval base near Port Sudan and join its ally Iran, which supports the government. Russia's agreement with the government, which will involve a radical military attitude, will involve a break in Sudan's relations with Ukraine.
In the Middle East, Ukrainian special forces have reportedly been attacking Russian troops and destroying military equipment in Syria since at least the beginning of this year, along with anti-regime forces in the country. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, Russia has shifted some of its combat forces from Syria to increase the number of troops there, and Kyiv's aim will be to apply military pressure to reverse the move.
Efforts of Ukrainian special forces in Africa and the Middle East may be little more than pins with minimal strategic effect. But in a war where the country's survival is at stake, and in the absence of Western support, it has no choice but to beat its enemy wherever it can. Undermining Russian criminal activity around the world is clearly in our interests, as well as Kyiv's interests. Putin's cooperation with Iran, particularly in Syria, contributes to the destabilization of the Middle East, which we are witnessing today, Kemp is sure.
In Africa, Russia is gaining control of strategic resources as well as wealth to wage Putin's war against Ukraine. In Mali, the Africa Corps has guarded uranium mines and is working to deny Western access to them, potentially posing a huge threat to our nuclear power generation, another opportunity for energy blackmail.
Moscow is also working to increase political support from African countries for its war against Ukraine, as well as its broader competition with the West. Therefore, we should support Ukraine in its external efforts wherever we can.
The countries of the Middle East see Putin's defeat in Ukraine
According to Colonel Kemp, the countries of the Middle East, which were once in awe of Russian military power, have finally realized that it was only an illusion.
Yes, in Syria, where Putin once had enormous influence, Russia is losing ground, if only because it has begun to redeploy part of its forces from there to Ukraine.
The fact that the "Wagner Group" is no longer his support in the war with Ukraine also influenced the weakening of the positions of the Kremlin leader.
Putin probably sees the events in Israel as a great opportunity to wrest victory from the jaws of defeat. Of course, there is evidence that in the short term he will be the net beneficiary of the bloodshed of Hamas and the war that followed.
However, these "genius" plans of the dictator may turn into a new geopolitical disaster for him.
Russia has long been a toxic influence in the Middle East, but as with Ukraine, it has now gotten more than it bargained for. He (Putin — ed.) can pretend as much as he wants that he is the main player in what is happening, but in reality he can have little influence on what is about to happen. If Putin sees this crisis as a means of winning the war in Ukraine, it is a pipe dream: one that only a desperate dictator could conjure up.
