According to the representatives of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, three refineries in Russia were forced to partially suspend work at once, which will affect the volume of oil refining by the aggressor country.
Points of attention
- The partial shutdown of three refineries in Russia will result in a drop in domestic oil refining volumes, hindering the country's ability to fulfill export contracts.
- Limited access to Western-made equipment due to sanctions and import substitution challenges led to the shutdown of the refineries, highlighting the inefficacy of the Russian import substitution program.
- Russian equipment manufacturers are able to meet only a fraction of the market needs, complicating maintenance and modernization efforts at the affected refineries.
- Despite attempts to use China as an alternative equipment supplier, incompatibility of technologies prevented the aggressor country from avoiding the partial shutdown of the refineries.
- The downtime at the Volgograd, Ilsky, and Yai refineries is estimated to lead to a monthly idle capacity of 1.8-2 million tons, increasing costs for the maintenance and modernization of the enterprises.
What is known about the consequences of the partial shutdown of three Russian refineries at once
The Foreign Intelligence Service notes that the partial shutdown of the Volgograd, Ilsky, and Yai refineries will lead to a drop in domestic oil refining volumes by the aggressor country, as these enterprises were unable to complete planned repairs in October.
This will make it difficult for Russia to fulfill export contracts for the supply of fuel to other countries, as well as to the domestic market, and will increase costs for maintenance and modernization of enterprises.
It is expected that the volume of oil refining capacities during downtime will be 1.8-2 million tons per month.
What caused the partial shutdown of three refineries in Russia at once
It is noted that enterprises were forced to partially stop work due to limited access to Western production equipment as a result of the imposed sanctions and the impossibility of import substitution.
In fact, the Russian import substitution program did not produce significant results. As a matter of fact, Russian equipment manufacturers provide only about 30-45% of market needs and only in some components (pumps, compressors, reactors, etc.), the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine emphasizes.
In addition, the agency emphasizes that the aggressor country failed to use China as an alternative supplier of equipment, as technologies from China are often simply incompatible with Russian equipment.
