According to the head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense, Kyril Budanov, the aggressor country, Russia, will not feel the consequences of the unleashed war against Ukraine, while the hostilities are mainly taking place on Ukrainian territory.
Points of attention
- Transferring the war to Russian territory is crucial to make the aggressor country feel the consequences of the war, as advocated by Budanov.
- The utilization of innovative technologies on the battlefield can help avoid 'meat assault' tactics and strike deep into Russia, significantly impacting morale.
- Budanov believes that Russia will not resort to using nuclear weapons even in the event of losing Crimea, citing political risks and lack of strategic benefit.
- Peace negotiations are deemed ineffective by Budanov, emphasizing the imperative of returning the occupied territory to resolve the conflict.
- Technological advancements and strategic shifts are key tools in altering the dynamics of the war and influencing Russia's perception of the ongoing conflict.
Budanov advocated transferring the war to the territory of Russia
In an interview with The Philadelphia Inquirer, the head of the GUR emphasized that Ukraine, unlike Russia, does not and cannot use "meat assault" tactics.
That, according to Budanov, is why it is necessary to implement technical innovations on the battlefield.
Technologies will play a very important role in this war so that we do not wage a war to the last citizen, Budanov explains.
At the same time, Budanov considers the latest technologies to be a key tool for striking deep into Russia itself.
I have been in favor of this since the first days of the war, openly saying that as long as the war is confined to our territory, it will not affect Russia. That is why, from the spring of 2022, we began to conduct significant operations on the territory of Russia, and we will go further, the more resources we have for this. And Russia began to feel it, Budanov emphasized.
The head of Ukrainian intelligence admitted that at the current stage these long-range strikes are not yet critical for Russia.
But they have already led to the fact that the average resident of the European part of the Russian Federation "exactly knows and feels that the war is going on, and he himself experiences some explosions."
This affects, even on a small scale, their morale, Budanov notes.
Will Russia use nuclear weapons in case of loss of Crimea
The head of the GUR is convinced that the Kremlin will not resort to using nuclear weapons in the event of the loss of occupied Crimea.
First, I know what's really going on there. Secondly, I know the real characteristics of Russian nuclear weapons. What is the benefit of this? We do not have a large concentration of troops for which such nuclear weapons would be appropriate. And it is possible to punch holes in our defense lines with the usual means of warfare. In addition, the use of nuclear weapons will lead to great political risks for Putin, Budanov explains.
He added that Putin's red lines regarding Crimea were crossed many times, "when Ukraine fired British missiles at the bases there, and nothing happened."
If there is even a chance to convince Putin that he cannot win, it could be to make Moscow's control over Crimea impossible, Budanov is convinced.
According to him, he does not see the point in peace negotiations, because "we have no other way out than to return the occupied, otherwise the state of war will last forever."
