Germany conducted exercises simulating a Russian invasion of Lithuania. The results were disappointing — Moscow is capable of achieving its goals in a matter of days.
Points of attention
- Germany's simulation of a Russian attack on Lithuania revealed Russia's capability to achieve its goals swiftly, creating a crisis in NATO and dominating the Baltic states.
- In the exercise, Russia exploited a humanitarian crisis pretext to seize a Lithuanian city, causing the US to hesitate invoking NATO assistance and leading to indecisiveness among European allies.
Russia's Possible Attack on Lithuania: Will Moscow Achieve Results?
The staff game, organized by the German War Games Center of the Helmut Schmidt University of the German Armed Forces, became the subject of heated discussions even before its results were published.
The exercise involved 16 former senior German and NATO officials, lawmakers, and prominent security experts, who played out a scenario set in October 2026.
During the exercises, Russia used the pretext of a humanitarian crisis in Russia's Kaliningrad to seize the Lithuanian city of Marijampole. The idea of a "humanitarian mission" proved enough for the US to refuse to invoke Article 5 of the NATO Treaty, which calls for allied assistance.
In the end, Germany proved indecisive, and Poland, although mobilizing, did not send troops across the border into Lithuania. A German brigade already deployed in Lithuania did not intervene, in part because Russia was using drones to mine the roads leading from its base.
"Deterrence depends not only on capabilities, but also on what the enemy thinks about our will, and in this war game my "Russian colleagues" and I knew: Germany would hesitate. And that was enough to win," said Franz-Stefan Gadi, a military analyst from Vienna who played the chief of the Russian general staff.
In these war games, in the absence of American leadership, Russia managed to undermine NATO's credibility and establish dominance over the Baltic states within days, deploying a force of only about 15,000 troops.
In real life, Lithuania and other allies would have had enough intelligence warnings to avoid this scenario, said Rear Admiral Giedrius Premeneckas, Chief of the Lithuanian Defense Staff.
According to him, even without allies, Lithuania's own armed forces would be able to cope with the limited threat to Marijampole.
According to analysts, Russia is currently "unable to claim European hegemony" because its European allies surpass it in population, economy, and, therefore, latent military power. But it can successfully take advantage of its allies' indecision and, theoretically, achieve its goals in a short time.
