In Russia, they recognized the presence of signs of a large-scale decline in the economy
Category
Economics
Publication date

In Russia, they recognized the presence of signs of a large-scale decline in the economy

Economic decline
Source:  Bloomberg

On Wednesday, September 25, the Central Bank of the aggressor country of Russia actually announced the first signs of approaching stagflation, which combines high inflation with low economic growth indicators.

Points of attention

  • The Central Bank of Russia has identified signs of stagflation with high inflation and low economic growth looming on the horizon.
  • Experts predict inflation exceeding 4% and GDP growth slowing to 1%-1.5% in 2025, raising concerns about the Russian economy.
  • While some economists foresee stagflation in Russia, others believe in a more moderate scenario with inflation around 5% and slower economic growth.
  • Consumer and investment activities are cooling in Russia, contributing to the potential onset of stagflation.
  • Inflationary pressures persist in Russia, leading to worries about the economy's future trajectory and the possibility of stagflation.

What will lead to large-scale stagflation in Russia

There are signs of cooling consumer and investment activity. Inflationary pressure remained high and the process of disinflation observed at the beginning of 2024 has not yet recovered, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation notes.

The Bank of Russia does not directly write about stagflation, but earlier its head Elvira Nabiullina used the word as a warning. She said that all central banks fear such a scenario.

The Russian Federation is already preparing for the collapse of the economy and high inflation
Fall of the economy

What do economists say?

Statements by the Bank of Russia indicate that the central bank sees the economy on the brink of stagflation. Despite sanctions and labor shortages holding back output growth, corporations and consumers don't expect prices to slow. They also don't see double-digit loan rates as restrictive enough. The central bank has reason to worry — we expect inflation to continue to exceed the target level of 4%, and GDP growth is likely to slow to 1%-1.5% in 2025, — explains Alexander Isakov, Bloomberg Economics' Russia economist.

According to Oleg Kuzmin, another economist from Renaissance Capital, we should not expect stagflation in Russia.

In his opinion, the aggressor country is currently at the crossroads between "soft" and "hard" economic landing next year.

In both cases, growth will slow to 1.3% or 2.5%, but inflation should also fall to around 5%.

Category
World
Publication date

Putin's henchman Patrushev cynically accused NATO of threatening Russia in the Baltics

Patrushev
Source:  online.ua

Nikolai Patrushev, an aide to the illegitimate Russian president, said that the occupying country currently sees a threat to itself from NATO in the Baltic region, in particular, it is about the Russian port infrastructure and shipping.

Points of attention

  • Patrushev accuses NATO of targeting Russian port infrastructure and shipping in the Baltic region, escalating tensions between Russia and the alliance.
  • The alleged use of cyberattacks by NATO on Russian ships and underwater infrastructure is claimed to provoke accidents, emergencies, and sabotage.
  • The deployment of additional forces by NATO in the Baltic Sea under Operation Baltic Sentinel raises concerns and hints at deliberate incitement of regional tensions.

Patrushev threatens NATO countries: what is known

Patrushev said this in an interview with the magazine "National Defense".

The forecast of the situation in the Baltics allows us to draw attention to the deliberate incitement of regional tensions by the naval forces of the European Alliance countries. There is a high probability of further intensification of threats to Russian port infrastructure and freedom of navigation.

Patrushev cynically stated that NATO continues its policy of blocking Russia in the Baltic region, "neglecting the resumption of dialogue between Moscow and Washington."

He also stated that the current escalation of the situation in the Baltic Sea was provoked by Great Britain.

According to him, NATO is practicing the use of cyberattacks on the navigation equipment of Russian ships in order to organize emergency situations, including those that lead to accidents.

Since the end of last year, additional forces have been deployed to the Baltic Sea as part of Operation Baltic Sentinel, ostensibly to counter sabotage, which has become more frequent. Experts are inclined to believe that the NATO countries themselves are the organizers, sponsors, and executors of the increasing number of emergency situations on merchant ships and failures of underwater infrastructure. According to available information, their Navy plans to intensify terrorist activities against Russian underwater pipelines, tankers, and dry cargo ships, Putin's henchman falsely stated.

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