Oleg Katkov, a military expert and editor-in-chief of Defense Express, noted that Europe is now realizing that they must independently ensure their own security architecture.
Points of attention
- Europe is realizing the importance of establishing an independent security architecture.
- The issue of providing Ukraine with weapons remains relevant due to restrictions on US funding.
- Europe faces significant challenges in fully compensating for American aid to Ukraine in terms of weapons supply.
Is Europe capable of independently providing Ukraine with weapons?
Katkov said that Trump came to power with the phrase that he would not help Ukraine with weapons on the previous terms.
In addition, even during Biden's presidency, it was clear that there was no money to finance aid to Ukraine for 2025. That is, it was no surprise to us that no money was provided. Ukraine is now using the safety margin that was formed during Biden's term. Over the last four months of the Biden administration, Ukraine has been provided with quite significant assistance packages under the presidential withdrawal program. We should not forget about the supply of weapons from USAI (the US Department of Defense funding program — ed.), which will take place until 2026-27.
According to him, now supplies from the US are not renewed as before every 2-3 weeks, when Ukraine received $1.5 billion for ammunition. So far, we have the same situation as exactly a year ago: from January to April 2024, US aid to Ukraine was not provided because Republicans blocked funding.
Will Europe be able to fully compensate for all American aid? If Europe purchases the same amount of weapons from the US, then, without a doubt, it will be able to. If we are talking about a transition, for example, Europe will take all the Ukrainian Bradleys that need to be serviced, purchased ammunition, engines for them, etc., and replace them with its own infantry fighting vehicles, then this is not a realistic scenario. It is also unrealistic, for example, to replace 200 units of M777 howitzers or about a thousand M113 armored personnel carriers.
In his opinion, regarding ammunition, Europe should definitely purchase them now in much larger quantities. After all, the US transferred 1 million ammunition once a year, which is the average rate of supply of 155 mm shells. And Europe completed the well-known initiative "1 million shells per year" in a year and a half. And these were not ammunition that were only produced in the EU, but those that were both produced and purchased.
If we take this paradigm, then Europe must provide both the American million ammunition and its own million in order to transfer 2 million 155 mm ammunition per year. Everyone understands perfectly well how realistic this is. Now Europe realizes that they must independently provide their own security architecture. But time is the most difficult resource that cannot be bought: there is money, there is no time.
