The Kremlin is worried about the fact that nuclear threats to Western countries have lost their effectiveness and now it is necessary to invent new ways to protect the imaginary "red lines".
Points of attention
- The Kremlin is facing a diminishing effectiveness of nuclear blackmail towards Western countries, prompting the need for new defense strategies to protect 'red lines'.
- Russian officials and analysts acknowledge the waning impact of nuclear threats, emphasizing the importance of alternative approaches to address escalating situations.
- Potential consequences of Western strikes on Russian territory may lead to increased sabotage operations and closer cooperation with other entities, such as the Yemeni Houthis.
- Analysts speculate on possible Kremlin reactions, with suggestions ranging from escalating the situation to playing a 'golden card' before the November US elections.
- Insights from experts like Lawrence Friedman and Tetyana Stanova provide valuable perspectives on the evolving dynamics and the challenges facing Putin in protecting 'red lines'.
The West stopped paying attention to the Kremlin's nuclear threats
There was a crackdown with nuclear threats. There is already immunity to such statements, and they do not scare anyone, — admitted one of the unnamed high-ranking Russian officials in a comment to the publication.
According to a Russian scientist close to the foreign ministry of the aggressor country, Russia realizes that the use of nuclear weapons is unlikely due to the negative reaction of partners from the countries of the Global South, as well as low effectiveness from a military point of view.
All this discussion about the nuclear threshold exaggerates the threat of this type of escalation and underestimates the possibility of alternatives. Since the West has a global military infrastructure... many vulnerable places can be found, — emphasizes the Russian scientist.
At the same time, the US's demonstrative refusal to allow Ukraine to strike Russian territory with Western long-range weapons to some extent appeased the Kremlin.
It is expected that if Ukraine is granted the appropriate permission, it will still have certain restrictions.
There is an understanding that the red lines drawn by Moscow are being ignored by the West, and Moscow must take more significant and significant steps to demonstrate the seriousness of its intentions, the Russian scientist says.
What Western and Russian analysts say
According to Tetyana Stanova, the founder of the French political consulting company R-Politik, strikes with long-range weapons on the territory of Russia can really become an internal political problem for the Kremlin.
For Putin, this is a qualitative shift that takes the situation to a new level and may be followed by further expansion, — explains Stanova.
Lawrence Friedman, professor emeritus of military studies at King's College London, suggests that in the event of strikes by Western long-range weapons on Russian territory, the Kremlin may increase sabotage operations against military targets and infrastructure in Western countries.
For example, Russia may begin close cooperation with the Yemeni Houthis.
He doesn't want to do anything dramatic or drastic, in the sense of nuclear or direct combat between our troops and his troops, but that doesn't mean that nothing serious will happen, Friedman said.
According to Sergei Markov, a political scientist close to the Kremlin, Russia will have to resort to escalating the situation, as Western countries have stopped paying attention to the so-called "red lines" of the aggressor country.
Since Russia is sure that at some point there will definitely be strikes on Moscow, we need to strike first, — says Markov.
Tetyana Stanova, in turn, rejects the possibility of such strikes until the situation for the Kremlin is truly a case of desperation.
However, Markov insists that Putin could increase his threats and play the "golden card" by escalating just before the November US elections to instill in Americans a real fear of nuclear war and to vote for Donald Trump, who advocates concessions to Russia .
Stanova believes that so far Putin himself does not know how to protect the "red lines" for him.
