The authorities of the aggressor country Russia have repeatedly threatened Ukraine with shelling of key energy facilities. On August 26, the Russian Federation launched a missile attack on the Kyiv HPP. Will the Kyiv Dam withstand such impacts and what will be the extent of the flooding of the surrounding area in the event of a hit?
Points of attention
- The Kyiv Dam faces potential risks of flooding in the event of a Russian missile strike, threatening the surrounding areas and disrupting the energy supply.
- Experts predict various scenarios of the HPP dam breach, assessing the extent of potential flooding in Kyiv and its suburbs.
- The Kyiv HPP structures are designed to withstand missile attacks effectively, with continuous monitoring systems in place to prevent accidents and ensure public safety.
- In the event of a dam breach, specific areas in Kyiv are at risk of flooding, but there are evacuation plans and measures to mitigate the impact on residents.
- While apocalyptic forecasts exist, scientific calculations suggest that the destruction of the Kyiv Dam may not lead to catastrophic flooding of entire districts, providing residents with adequate time for evacuation and safety measures.
Breach of the Kyiv dam: Russia threatens Ukraine
Russian propagandists have repeatedly accused Ukraine of the crimes that the Saiyans want to commit. Thus, on July 12, the spokeswoman of the Russian Foreign Ministry, the odious Maria Zakharova, claimed that Ukraine plans to destroy the dams of the Kyiv HPP and the Kaniv Reservoir in order to blame Russia.
Earlier, Russia accused Ukraine of undermining the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric dam, saying that it was destroyed due to "continuous shelling by the Armed Forces" in the summer of 2023. However, numerous evidences convincingly show that it was Russia that blew up the dam.
Apocalyptic forecasts regarding the flooding of the Kyiv dam
After the attacks of the Russian army on critical infrastructure objects, the network was shaken by some apocalyptic forecasts of previous years about the consequences of the destruction of the dam of the Kyiv Reservoir.
In particular, the statements of the so-called "Kyiv ecologist" Vasyl Kredo, who once claimed that the Kyiv dam is "the most dangerous object on Earth" because it is 93% in emergency, were in the focus of attention. According to this "forecast", the capital district of Obolon will be the first to be hit, which will be "covered by a four-meter wave" three minutes after the accident, followed by Troyeshchyna, Podil and Rusanivka. The threat allegedly exists for dozens of other settlements in Ukraine, as well as for the Zaporizhzhia NPP.
The company Ukrhydroenergo has already reacted to such catastrophic forecasts, calling them manipulative. A breach of the Kyiv Dam as a result of a Russian missile attack was called unlikely there. The company assured that it is not so easy to destroy the HPP structures with a rocket.
Regarding the possible scenarios of missile attack by Russian troops on the dam of the Kyiv hydroelectric plant, no critical threat to the population is predicted. Since the station and the dam itself were designed and built in the 1960s, taking into account the threats of that time, with a significant margin of strength and stability, it is not so easy to destroy or significantly damage massive hydrotechnical structures by a missile attack.
In addition, the HPP is equipped with control and measurement equipment, an automated system for monitoring the safety of hydrotechnical structures. This allows for round-the-clock monitoring of the main indicators of the condition of the station's facilities and to prevent accidents.
The HPP is constantly guarded by departmental military guards together with other specialized units.
The company assured that the hydrotechnical structures of the Kyiv HPP are regularly inspected, and their reliability "doesn't raise any doubts."
If the metal gates of the dam are still damaged during the Russian strike, a gradual uncontrolled leakage of water from the Kyiv Reservoir may occur. As a result, some areas will be flooded.
Flooding areas will be minor and known to the emergency services and local authorities, so local residents will be notified in advance.
In addition, the Ukrainian media spread claims about the "domino effect" in the event of the destruction of the Kyiv Dam: that then the Kanivska, Kremenchutska and other cascade dams on the Dnieper will also be destroyed, and this may even provoke an accident at the Zaporizhzhya NPP.
Such a statement appeared in the Telegram channel of the Ministry of Infrastructure of Ukraine in February, on the day when the Russian Federation tried to attack the dam of the Kyiv Reservoir.
If the dam is destroyed, the flood will lead to catastrophic casualties and damage, including the flooding of residential areas of Kyiv and the suburbs. The destruction of the Kyiv dam may lead to the destruction of the Kaniv, Kremenchuk, and other dams of the cascade and even an accident at the Zaporizhia NPP, the ministry and the media reported with reference to Ukrvodshly.
What could be the threat of an attack on the Kyiv HPP: scenarios of scientists
What could be the consequences of the breach of the Kyiv HPP dam — already in April 2022, scientists of the Institute of Problems of Mathematical Machines and Systems of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine predicted.
Detailed calculations of probable scenarios of a dam breach, flooding of the territories of Kyiv and its surroundings are publicly available on the website of the National Academy of Sciences.
As scientists emphasize, the damage and destruction of the dam of the Kyiv HPP is dangerous due to the sudden and uncontrolled release of a large amount of water from the Kyiv Reservoir, the rapid spread of waves through the Dnieper floodplain, and the flooding of Kyiv's shores. All this can lead to material damage, flooding of large areas, death and injury of residents of the capital.
Scientists have considered three possible options for the breakthrough of the HPP dam:
If the size of the breach (a pothole formed by the breakthrough of a water flow of a pressure hydraulic structure — a dam, an earthen dam) will be 400 m, scientists consider such a scenario unlikely. As already mentioned, Kyiv HPP, in particular, consists of a concrete dam and an earth dam. The length of the HPP dam is 288 m. And together with the dams on the left and right banks of the Dnieper, the total length reaches about 400 m, that is, in this case, we are talking about the complete destruction of the HPP structures. The destruction of the dam together with both dams corresponds to an unlikely scenario with a breach of 400 m , — the NAS emphasizes.
Complete destruction of the dam (opening 280 m). Scientists consider this scenario more realistic.
Another realistic scenario, according to the scientists, is the partial destruction of the HPP dam (break of 100 m).
According to scientists' calculations, the largest areas of flooding will be observed in areas with reduced relief:
In the north of Kyiv Oblast — from the HPP dam to the borders of Kyiv, in the metropolitan microdistricts of Obolon and Troyeshchyna. In some places, the water level can reach 3 m or more.
In the south , from the Southern Bridge in Kyiv to the protective dams in the village of Kozyn and the village of Protsiv.
In Kyiv, the following may be flooded: small areas along the Obolon Lakes; islands (Trukhaniv, Dolobetskyi, Venetiyskyi), as well as summer cottages and cottage towns located on the left bank (Rusanivske sady, Nizhny sady, Desnianske).
In the south of the capital, a larger area is at risk of flooding: in the Holosiiv district, the section from the Dnipro to the Stolichny highway; Osokorky (in particular, the neighborhood to Revutskogo Street); Poznyakiv 11th microdistrict; Bortnychi microdistrict to lakes Vitovets and Zaplavne.
Judging by the table of the depth of flooding at several control points in Kyiv, the water will rise the most in the Rusanivske sady country estate: up to almost 3 m, if the size of the breach is 280 m, and up to 1.5 m if the dam is partially destroyed.
The water level will also be high in Osokorki , in the Nizhny Sady microdistrict and in Korchuvaty.
In addition to the size of the breach at the HPP, the level of flooding will also be affected by the hydrological situation at the time of the breach: the water level in the Kyiv Reservoir. If the water level is higher during the hypothetical damage to the dam, then the flooded area will be larger.
And the time of the beginning of flooding and reaching the maximum depth depends on the size of the damage (breach) in the dam.
Scientists emphasize: even with the complete destruction of the Kyiv HPP dam, there will be time to evacuate the residents of Kyiv or raise them to a safe height (above the first floor in multi-story buildings). In particular, in the event of a breach of 280 m in 8 hours, the water will rise to a level of about 1.2 m (still a safe depth for an adult). For the 100 m sprint, this time will be 23 hours and 20 minutes.
The water will rise to the level of 2.78 m in the Rusanivski Sady massif in more than 20 hours.
The breach of the Kyiv dam will not destroy the districts of Kyiv
Therefore, given the scientists' calculations, there is no question of apocalyptic scenarios of the destruction of entire districts of Kyiv by a water "tsunami".
As the professor of the Institute of Environmental Radiology of Fukushima University, senior researcher of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine Mark Zheleznyak emphasized, the problem of possible Russian missile strikes on the Kyiv HPP dam definitely exists. As well as the threat of flooding large areas in the event of dam failure. However, "the apocalypse is cancelled."
There won't be a four-meter water wall on Obolon... In the event of this terrorist attack by a Russian gang, rocket attacks on the Kyiv HPP, the riverside areas of Kyiv will be gradually flooded. Among the residential areas of Kyiv, Rusanivski gardens are the most likely to be flooded, the height of the rise (water, — Ed.) is up to 3 meters. The shell is an insignificant submergence. As for the Rusaniv Gardens, those who do not have time to leave, even though the ascent to the maximum will last for hours, must climb to the second floor of their own or a neighbor's house.
According to him, the problem of flooding of the Rusaniv Gardens would be solved if a flood dam was built there.
It was Zheleznyak and a team of other scientists of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine who calculated the possible consequences of the breach of the Kyiv HPP dam.
Another participant of this study, analyst of geoinformation systems Oleksiy Ishchuk, explained that it is almost impossible to blow up the earth dam of the HPP. That is, only a concrete dam can be destroyed.
280 meters is exactly the length of the concrete part. That is, these are the maximum destructions that can occur, because it is practically impossible to blow up an earthen dam. And the destruction from, let's say, a normal missile hit is no more than 100 meters, — said Ishchuk, who is the developer of the mapping module of the flooding model of the Kyiv region.
He assured that the breach of the dam of the Kyiv HPP under any scenario should not affect residential areas. Because, for example, during the construction of Oboloni, several meters of sand were first washed there, and only then were houses erected. So beaches and low-lying bushland may be flooded in this metropolitan area. The historic district of Podil is protected by a high embankment.
Ishchuk emphasized that under no circumstances will there be any extremely high and fast wave after the hypothetical destruction of the dam. Thus, the water level difference between the Kyiv Reservoir and the Dnipro River downstream is small. So the wave will simply spread out, and under the North Bridge will not rise higher than one and a half to two meters.
Even long before the Russian Federation's war against Ukraine, apocalyptic scenarios of the flooding of Kyiv were refuted by Doctor of Geographical Sciences, Professor Viktor Vishnevskyi. He explained that the houses of Kyiv residents are mostly tens of meters higher than the water level in the Kyiv Reservoir, which is on average 103 m above sea level.
Most of the territory of Kyiv has an absolute height much higher than 103 m. For example, in Pechersk, the height of the area reaches 190-195 m above sea level. As for the prevailing height of the city, it is 120-150 m. So, the absolute height of Independence Square is 153 m, Victory Square is 129 m.
According to Vyshnevskyi, the exception is some areas in Obolon and Podil. However, this does not mean that they will go under water in the event of an accident at the hydroelectric power station: the dam cannot completely collapse immediately, and the water will flow out through a smaller or larger opening. With distance from the dam, the level of the water flow will gradually decrease.
According to the current legislation, in the event of the destruction of hydrotechnical structures, the general evacuation of the population from areas of possible catastrophic flooding is carried out in the event that the breakthrough wave can reach populated areas in less than four hours.
Recommendations for Kyiv residents in the event of a flood threat have been published on the official website of the KMDA. In particular, it is necessary to: carefully listen to the information and instructions of the authorities, relevant departments; find out the gathering place for evacuation; prepare documents (in a waterproof bag), necessary things, clothes, a supply of food for several days, medicines; disconnect all electrical appliances from the network and turn off the gas; keep calm and don't panic.
And in case of sudden flooding, you also need to close the windows and doors; collect documents, valuables, medicines, products and other necessary things; provide assistance to children, the disabled and the elderly; climb to the upper floors (if the house is one-story — to the attic), to roofs, trees and other elevations, where to wait for help.
The Russians hit the Kyiv HPP
During the massive Russian attack on Ukraine on August 26, the occupiers aimed missiles at the Kyiv hydroelectric plant. However, there is no threat of a dam breach.
As the top manager of the state energy company noted, the Kyiv HPP was hit and damaged as a result of the shelling.
There is no threat of a dam breach or critical damage to the station.
It is very difficult to destroy the Kyiv HPP, but if it happens, it may flood the basements in the districts of Kyiv adjacent to the Dnipro and for some time drinking water will disappear, explained the general director of "Ukrhydroenergo" Ihor Syrota earlier.
