If at the beginning of 2024, the Russian Federation removed more than 115 tanks from storage every month, now the pace has halved.
Points of attention
- Many tanks are in an unsatisfactory condition, which leads to a decrease in the possibilities of repair and modernization.
- The Russian military-industrial complex plans to supply the army with 1,500 tanks annually, but the focus is on limited types of tanks.
- Experts believe that Russia's tank fleet will gradually decrease, which may affect its offensive capabilities.
- Full and exhaustive repair of tanks requires a large financial and time expenditure, which can complicate the process of restoring armored vehicles in the future.
Why Russia has reduced the pace of tank recovery
As OSINT analyst Highmarsed writes, Russia has removed about 2,500 tanks from storage, while the pace of work has halved over the past year — from 115 to about 60 tanks per month.
Since multiple people have asked for it here is the breakdown for the condition of the individual tank types: pic.twitter.com/2SNgNyypNx
— Highmarsed (@HighMarsed) July 6, 2024
As the analyst explains, initially, Russia had many reserve tanks in good condition that could be brought out of storage quickly, and the rate was probably even higher than 115 per month, which made it possible to compensate for high initial losses.
However, in 2024, the trend began to change. Currently, the occupiers are restoring about 60 tanks per month, which is not enough to replace the losses, which according to War Spotting are currently at least 93 tanks per month.
The reason for this is probably that the tanks that remained in storage are in a much worse condition, the analyst notes. Many of the tanks have been out in the open for over 15 years and need more work.
The researcher notes that it is almost impossible to determine the technical condition of tanks from satellite images, but he is sure that a significant amount of equipment will never work again. The only option in this case would be a major repair, while the body of the car does not necessarily have to be in good condition, it could be repaired.
Given enough money, time, and spare parts, it's probably possible to repair any tank, but the process will only get more expensive over time. In addition, Russia has so far focused on the creation of repair/modernization capacities only for some types of tanks — T-80, T-72B and T-62, — the analyst notes.
Although he believes that Russia is unlikely to run out of tanks in the near future, the tank fleet will most likely slowly but steadily decline over time, affecting offensive capabilities.
When Russia will run out of tanks
Previously, OSINT analysts estimated that the number of T-80 tanks in good condition in Russia has significantly decreased, and at this rate, the Russian T-80s in storage bases may run out approximately in the middle of 2026, so the occupiers will have to bet on more massive and older T- 55/T-62, and more rare T-90.
At the same time, in 2024, the military-industrial complex of the Russian Federation plans to supply the army with approximately 1,500 tanks and 3,000 samples of other armored vehicles. The same amount is planned for next year.
