Russia has recently carried out at least 145 incidents that Western officials believe are part of a Russian-orchestrated campaign of destabilization in Europe.
Points of attention
- Russia is carrying out a campaign of destabilization in Europe, with at least 145 incidents believed to be orchestrated by Moscow.
- The goal of Russia's hybrid war is to deplete resources, deprive Ukraine of Western support, and reveal weaknesses in Europe's security system.
- The campaign involves various acts of sabotage, cyber attacks, and cross-border operations, draining valuable security resources from European countries.
Russia wants to deplete Europe's resources through sabotage
Western officials interviewed by the AP, who spoke on condition of anonymity, say the campaign, which has been underway since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, aims to drain support from Kyiv, create divisions among Europeans and expose weaknesses in the continent's security system.
So far in this hybrid war, most known acts of sabotage have resulted in minimal damage.
But officials say each act — from vandalism of monuments to cyberattacks to warehouse fires — drains valuable security resources. The head of one of Europe’s major intelligence agencies said investigating Russian interference takes as much time as investigating terrorist attacks.
While this campaign is a heavy burden for European security services, it costs Russia almost nothing, the sources added.
This is because Moscow conducts cross-border operations that require extensive cooperation from European countries in investigations, often using people with criminal records as cheap executioners for Russian intelligence services. Even plots that are foiled are a victory for Moscow, as they test the country’s defenses and drain its resources.
Over the course of a year, AP spoke with more than 40 European and NATO officials from 13 countries to document the scope of hybrid warfare.
AP has seen a sharp increase in the number of arsons and bombings in Europe — from one in 2023 to 26 in 2024. In 2025, six such cases have been recorded so far.
Last year, there were three cases of vandalism, and this year, there was one. However, it is noted that the data may be incomplete, as not all incidents are made public and it can take months to establish contact with Moscow. But the surge is in line with warnings from officials that the campaign is becoming more dangerous.
The countries most frequently attacked are Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Britain, Germany, and France. All of these countries are major supporters of Ukraine.
A European official, a senior Baltic intelligence official and another intelligence official said the campaign had noticeably slowed in late 2024 and early this year. Their analysis suggested that Moscow likely paused the campaign to curry favor with the new administration of U.S. President Donald Trump. But the Russians then resumed their subversive activities.
Officials warn that Russia is constantly testing new methods. One example is the Belarusian weather balloons with cigarettes to Lithuania and Poland, which have repeatedly suspended the operation of the airport in the Lithuanian capital. Officials warn that currently they transport only cigarettes, but in the future they may transport other things.
