The military command of the Russian Federation is sending insufficiently equipped and understaffed units from the operational reserve to the front to support the assaults in eastern Ukraine.
Points of attention
- The Russian military command is sending understaffed units from the operational reserve to the front to support assaults in eastern Ukraine.
- The analysis shows that units of the 27th Motorised Rifle Division were operating ahead of schedule at the front, indicating problems with manning and weapons.
- Experts believe that Russian efforts to deploy armed forces may not provide a full-fledged operational reserve for the occupying army at the front.
- The early deployment of understaffed units may indicate the strategic difficulties of the Russian Federation in preparing for war in eastern Ukraine.
- The Institute for the Study of War report points to shortcomings in the readiness of the Russian army to conduct hostilities against Ukraine effectively.
Russia creates understaffed units from the reserve and immediately sends them to the front
The Russian military command may have brought under-equipped units into combat operations that were originally intended to act as an operational reserve, perhaps due to limitations on Russia's defence industrial base (DIB) or an effort to bolster ongoing Russian grinding attacks in Ukraine, the report said. reports of the Institute for the Study of War.
Analysts recalled the statement of Ukrainian military commentator Kostyantyn Mashovets, who said on July 13 that the Russian Federation plans to form the 27th Motorised Rifle Division (2nd Combined Arms Army, Central Military District) as an operational reserve of the Central Group of Forces, which operates in the Avdiyiv and Toretsk directions. According to the expert, these soldiers could be sent to the battlefield in the event of a counteroffensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Avdiiv direction or a Russian offensive in the Toretsk direction.
However, instead of this, the Russians transferred the 433rd Motorised Rifle Regiment of the 27th Motorised Rifle Division, which is staffed with the degraded remnants of the 21st Motorised Rifle Brigade, to the area northwest of Avdiivka until its combat capability is fully restored.
At the same time, the 506th and 589th motorized rifle regiments were transferred to the Toretsky direction even before the units reached the "planned deadlines".
Ukrainian experts predicted a weakening of the Russian army
Back in March, Mashovets said that the military command of the Russian Federation was going to equip units of the 27th motorised rifle division with only 87% of the required amount of weapons and equipment and planned to prepare the 433rd, 506th and 598th motorised rifle regiments for combat at the end of spring or at the beginning of the summer of 2024.
For the first time, the Institute for the Study of War noticed that units of the 27th Motorized Rifle Division operated near Avdiivka in April 2024 and near Toretsk in early July 2024.
These regiments deployed earlier than planned may indicate that the Russians fell behind the planned manning and armament schedule and could not equip these units to the target mark of 87%.
ISW has previously pointed out that Russia's military deployment efforts create a small number of additional forces that are not immediately sent to the front as reinforcements for the gradual creation of operational reserves. Still, it is unlikely that these DIBs can fully provide their reserves. Analysts suggest that the early deployment of these units is intended to support the offensive operations of the occupying army.
