Western analysts point out that the plan to replace the transit of Russian gas with Azerbaijani gas through Ukraine to Europe can only be a scheme to cover up further supplies of blue fuel from the aggressor country.
Points of attention
- Russia appears to be using Azerbaijani gas transit through Ukraine as a cover to continue exporting its own gas to Europe.
- Ukraine sees the agreement as a way to safeguard its infrastructure from attacks by Russia, but doubts linger about the feasibility of this option.
- Alternative options such as purchasing gas from EU traders or cooperating with Azerbaijan pose risks of gas dependence and ties to Gazprom.
- The issue of gas transit through Ukraine is multifaceted and requires careful analysis and balanced decisions to navigate the complex geopolitical landscape.
- The desire to covertly continue importing Russian gas may stem from pressure by pro-Russian politicians in neighboring EU countries and the interests of traders.
How Russia seeks to protect the transit of its gas through Ukraine to the EU
According to the journalists of the publication, the leadership of Ukraine is considering a plan to replace the transit of Russian gas with blue fuel from Azerbaijan.
At the same time, gas will be supplied from Azerbaijan to Russia, and then through the territory of Ukraine to the EU countries, and only a small part of this gas will be Azerbaijani.
According to Mykhailo Gonchar, president of the Center for Global Studies "Strategy XXI", the agreement can become a cover scheme for the export of Russian gas through the territory of Ukraine to EU countries.
The executive director of Naftogaz, Oleksiy Chernyshov, emphasizes that the option of gas transit from Azerbaijan is the key one that Ukraine is considering in the context of refusing transit of blue fuel from Russia.
Currently, about 5% of the total volume of Russian gas supplied to the EU passes through Ukraine.
Azerbaijan can supply only 2 billion cubic meters of the required 14 billion cubic meters.
What analysts say
Mykhailo Gonchar emphasizes that the leadership of Ukraine is ready to agree that the transit of Russian gas to the EU will be continued under the guise of Azerbaijani gas.
Ukraine hopes that such a step will be able to protect the infrastructure of the gas transportation system from attacks by the criminal army of the Russian Federation.
However, the analyst emphasizes that these are very illusory hopes, since the occupation army of the Russian Federation is hitting gas compressor stations in Ukraine.
According to Dennis Sakva, an energy expert from the investment company Dragon Capital, Russia may agree to such an agreement not only to preserve the transit of its own gas through Ukraine.
Chernyshov emphasized that the alternative remains the purchase of gas by EU traders on the border of Ukraine and Russia - which would tie Ukraine to Gazprom.
Azerbaijan's offer is more solid because they have gas production that they can send to Europe. While EU traders will act as a channel for Russian gas, Chernyshov explains.
The former head of the Ukrainian GTS Serhiy Makogon adds that Ukraine earned about 1 billion dollars a year for the transit of Russian gas.
However, most of the funds were spent on maintenance of the GTS itself.
However, the transit added about $5 billion a year to Moscow's military coffers, contradicting Ukraine's calls for sanctions against Russian fuel.
Makogon emphasizes that the desire to covertly continue importing Russian gas may be due to pressure from pro-Russian politicians in neighboring EU countries, whom Moscow is trying to preserve and support, as well as the interests of traders.
