The consequences of the August 26 Russian missile attack on the dam of the Kyiv Hydroelectric Power Station are currently being investigated. According to Ukrhydroenergo, there is no threat of flooding or a breakthrough.
Points of attention
- Ukrhydroenergo is currently assessing the consequences of the Russian missile attack on the dam of the Kyiv HPP and has stated that there is no imminent threat of flooding or dam breach.
- The Institute of Problems of Mathematical Machines and Systems of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine has predicted possible scenarios of dam breach and flooding in Kyiv and its surroundings in the event of a catastrophic breakdown.
- Three potential scenarios for the dam to break have been considered, including complete destruction, partial destruction, and opening of varying lengths, each with different implications for the safety of residents.
- Despite the hypothetical calculations, it is crucial to prioritize safety measures to mitigate the risks associated with the potential dam breach, as confirmed by experts and scientists.
- The importance of timely evacuation and preparedness in the face of such threats is highlighted, emphasizing the need for proactive measures to ensure the safety and well-being of the residents in the affected areas.
Is there a threat of a breach of the Kyiv HPP dam?
According to the General Director of Ukrhydroenergo Ihor Syrota on the air of the telethon, on August 28, the demolition of rubble after the missile strike continues.
So far, it is not possible to assess all the technical consequences. In particular, it is unclear how much time it will take to restore.
But I want to say for sure that today there is no threat of flooding or a breach of the dam for the Kyiv HPP. The station will pass this water, which is available. Some part through the unit, and some, if necessary, will raise the shutters. The station works in the mode in which it can work today. I think we will find out the consequences of the missile strike by the end of the week.
Igor the Orphan
General Director of "Ukrhydroenergo"
In particular, Sirota noted that the station's employees were not injured as a result of the shelling, as they were in shelters at the time.
Shelling of the Kyiv HPP by Russia on August 26
Recently, the spokeswoman of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia, Maria Zakharova, claimed that Ukraine is allegedly planning to destroy the dams of the Kyiv Hydroelectric Power Station and the Kaniv Reservoir in order to blame the Russian occupiers and gain additional support from the West.
On August 26, during a massive shelling by Russian terrorists, the Kyiv HPP became one of the targets of the attack.
Later, Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation, said that there was no threat to the station. According to him, the station cannot be destroyed by rockets, and it is not worth comparing it with the Kakhovskaya HPP.
What could be the threat of an attack on the Kyiv HPP: scenarios of scientists
What could be the consequences of the breach of the Kyiv HPP dam — already in April 2022, scientists of the Institute of Problems of Mathematical Machines and Systems of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine predicted.
Detailed calculations of probable scenarios of a dam breach, flooding of the territories of Kyiv and its surroundings are publicly available on the website of the National Academy of Sciences.
As scientists emphasize, the damage and destruction of the dam of the Kyiv HPP is dangerous due to the sudden and uncontrolled release of a large amount of water from the Kyiv Reservoir, the rapid spread of waves through the Dnieper floodplain, and the flooding of Kyiv's shores. All this can lead to material damage, flooding of large areas, death and injury of residents of the capital.
Scientists have considered three possible options for the breakthrough of the HPP dam:
If the size of the breach (the pothole formed by the breakthrough of the water flow of the pressure hydrotechnical structure — a dam, an earthen dam) is 400 m, scientists consider such a scenario unlikely. As already mentioned, Kyiv HPP, in particular, consists of a concrete dam and an earth dam. The length of the HPP dam is 288 m. And together with the dams on the left and right banks of the Dnieper, the total length reaches about 400 m, that is, in this case, it is about the complete destruction of the HPP structures. The destruction of the dam together with both dams corresponds to an unlikely scenario with a breach of 400 m , — the NAS emphasizes.
Complete destruction of the dam (opening 280 m). Scientists consider this scenario more realistic.
Another realistic scenario, according to the scientists, is the partial destruction of the HPP dam (break of 100 m).
Scientists emphasize: even with the complete destruction of the Kyiv HPP dam, there will be time to evacuate the residents of Kyiv or raise them to a safe height (above the first floor in multi-story buildings). In particular, in the case of breaking 280 m in 8 hours, the water will rise to a level of about 1.2 m (still a safe depth for an adult). For the 100 m sprint, this time will be 23 hours and 20 minutes.
