By the end of March 2026, Ukraine will need to purchase approximately 4.4 billion cubic meters of gas.
Points of attention
- Russian attacks on Ukraine's gas infrastructure have severely impacted the country's gas production, jeopardizing the heating season.
- Ukraine may need to purchase 4.4 billion cubic meters of gas worth almost 2 billion euros to meet its energy needs, following the destruction caused by Russian strikes.
- G7 partners are considering assisting Ukraine in restoring its energy system and funding necessary gas imports to mitigate the crisis.
How will the heating season in Ukraine unfold amid Russia's destruction of gas infrastructure?
Russian strikes on energy infrastructure have destroyed more than half of Ukraine's domestic natural gas production, and Kyiv may have to spend €1.9 billion on fuel imports to get through the heating season.
Earlier this week, Ukrainian authorities told allies that massive Russian shelling of the Kharkiv and Poltava regions on October 3 had destroyed approximately 60% of gas production.
Ukraine's gas infrastructure, which was capable of meeting domestic demand before Russia's full-scale invasion, has been subjected to increasingly intense missile and drone strikes since the beginning of this year.
If the strikes continue, Ukraine expects to have to purchase approximately 4.4 billion cubic meters of gas, worth almost 2 billion euros, by the end of March. This is equivalent to almost 20% of the country's annual consumption.
Following the recent strikes, Ukraine has urgently appealed to G7 partners for equipment to restore its energy system and financial support to pay for necessary gas imports. Kyiv has also reiterated that it still needs additional air defense systems to protect its energy infrastructure.
Ukraine has purchased 4.58 billion cubic meters of gas from foreign suppliers since the beginning of this year, including 3.67 billion since the end of the last heating season. While official Kyiv estimated that the country's import needs would reach 5.8 billion by the end of this year, it told allies earlier this week that this figure could increase due to Russian attacks.
The exact amount of gas Ukraine needs will depend on a number of factors, including the speed of repairs to damaged facilities and the impact of future air strikes. The bill for emergency energy repairs is estimated at around €758 million.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the European Investment Bank, and the European Commission are already considering providing additional assistance to Ukraine's energy sector.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that gas prices for household consumers in Ukraine will remain unchanged, and residents of frontline communities will not be disconnected from energy supply.
