The Institute for the Study of War has established three locations in the Russian Federation where occupation troops are concentrated. Analysts believe that the number of available contingents is limited, but in case of offensive operations, they can force Ukraine to shift and stretch troops along the border.
In what directions is Russia advancing?
According to ISW, the first district is Graivoron-Borysovka-Proletarsky in the west of Belgorod region. According to satellite images, the Russians have expanded their activity at bases and warehouses in populated areas in the area in recent weeks. However, the exact number of troops is still unknown.
The Graivoron-Borysovka-Proletarsky section will allow the invaders to advance south toward Zolochiv and Bogodukhiv. These are settlements to the northwest of Kharkiv within 25 kilometres of the international border or to the west in the direction of settlements along the P-45 highway connecting Bogodukhiv with Sumy.
As experts suggested, the Russians could conduct offensive operations in one or both directions simultaneously. It would force the Armed Forces to transfer troops to a more extensive border section in the Kharkiv and Sumy regions.
In addition, the enemy concentrated a limited number of soldiers in the Kursk and Bryansk regions near the border with the Sumy region. According to ISW, even a limited concentration in these areas could lead to further encroachment and entrenchment of Ukrainian forces on the international border.
At present, the armed forces of the Russian Federation are bringing the Northern group of troops in the border area to the planned final strength. After that, they will likely launch limited offensive actions in the direction of Sumy-Kharkiv until the Northern Group of Forces approaches its final strength.
Even limited Russian offensive operations in these areas would create pressures that would stretch Ukrainian personnel and equipment along a wider front and possibly allow Russian forces to establish tactical bridgeheads to support further operations either northwest of the city of Kharkiv or toward the city of Sumy, — the report says.
However, analysts are sure that the Northern Group of Forces, even if it reaches the upper limit of the declared final strength, will not have sufficient forces for a successful operation to encircle or capture Kharkiv or Sumy.
The offensive of the Russian army in the Sumy and Kharkiv region0s
Earlier, the chief of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (DIU), Kyrylo Budanov, stated that the Russian Federation planned to advance on the Kharkiv and Sumy directions simultaneously, but they failed.
According to the general, ex-director of Ukrainian intelligence, Mykola Malomuzha, a repeated attack by Russian troops on Kharkiv and Sumy is unlikely — a million soldiers would be needed for this.
Later, the intelligence service noted that they had not yet seen a threat of a Russian attack on Kharkiv and Sumy.
The spokesman of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine Andriy Demchenko said yesterday that the Russian army near the Ukrainian border in the Sumy region has certain units and means, but these forces are not enough to achieve the strategic goal.
