According to German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, since the beginning of the criminal war against Ukraine unleashed by the Kremlin, the occupation army of the Russian Federation has lost about 350,000 soldiers killed and wounded.
Points of attention
- German Chancellor Olaf Scholz reports that the Russian army has lost around 350,000 soldiers in the war against Ukraine, indicating significant casualties on the Russian side.
- Analysts foresee a protracted conflict between Russia and Ukraine throughout 2024-2025, highlighting the potential advantages for Ukraine due to shortages in personnel and military equipment within the Russian army.
- The support and assistance from Western allies could play a crucial role in determining the future developments and possible counteroffensive operations of the Armed Forces, as per the assessments of various international agencies.
- The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) underlines the challenges faced by the Russian Federation in sustaining the war effort against Ukraine, including depleting resources, potential public apathy, and the need for economic mobilization.
- ISW analysts suggest that with strong Western support, Ukraine may have the capacity for counteroffensive actions, while Russia could struggle to escalate its military presence due to resource limitations and domestic sentiments.
How Germany evaluates the losses of the Russian army in the war against Ukraine
Scholz noted that in order to occupy additional square meters of Ukrainian territory, Kremlin dictator Vladimir Putin kills civilians and sends thousands of Russian soldiers to their deaths.
According to our data - although the exact numbers are unknown - 350,000 Russian soldiers either died or were seriously wounded. And every day this number grows by a thousand or more, - emphasized the Chancellor of Germany.
How do analysts assess the prospects for ending the war between the Russian Federation and Ukraine
Analysts of the international agency Fitch Ratings predict that the criminal war unleashed by Russia against Ukraine will continue at least during 2024-2025.
Although it is not clear whether one of the sides will be able to gain a decisive advantage, there are also no signs of readiness to make concessions, so the war may turn out to be very protracted, analysts emphasize.
In the longer term, the agency expects some form of settlement, but sees a "frozen conflict" as more likely than a lasting peace agreement, at least for a significant period.
At the same time, analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) note that currently the occupation army of the Russian Federation is already experiencing a shortage of personnel and military equipment.
In their opinion, in the long run, subject to strong assistance from Western partners, this will enable Ukraine to conduct its own counteroffensive operations.
ISW analysts are convinced that in the medium and long term, the occupation army of the Russian Federation will not be able to increase the number of personnel in the war against Ukraine.
According to their information, currently the aggressor country is rapidly depleting its stocks of old Soviet weapons and equipment.
It remains unclear whether Russia's defense industry will be able to produce enough weapons and equipment.
Further economic mobilization is likely to be extremely unpopular among Russians, who are largely apathetic about the war as long as it does not affect their daily lives, and a change in policy could weaken domestic support for the war, the ISW report stressed.
The Kremlin will likely have to further mobilize the Russian economy and defense industry to maintain the current pace of operations in the medium to long term.
ISW continues to assess that the Defense Forces can fight for the initiative on the battlefield and, ultimately, create the conditions for conducting both limited and large-scale counteroffensive operations, provided timely and appropriate assistance from the West in the field of security, analysts conclude.
