Taiwan has for the first time identified 2027 as a potential year for a Chinese invasion in its annual military drills, as concerns grow on the self-ruled island about tensions with Beijing.
Points of attention
- Taiwan has marked 2027 as a potential year for a Chinese invasion, highlighting the growing concerns about tensions with Beijing.
- The Ministry of Defense is intensifying military drills and increasing preparedness in anticipation of a possible attack by Chinese troops.
- Focusing on 2027 may also serve as a political signal to urge an increase in military spending and break the deadlock in Taiwan's divided parliament.
Taiwan is preparing for war with China
Taiwan's Defense Ministry announced the date in a document released Tuesday to inform lawmakers about upcoming war games simulating an attack by the Chinese military. The exercises will also double to 10 days this summer, reflecting a heightened emphasis on military preparedness in the democracy that China claims as its territory.
A preliminary plan for Taiwan’s largest annual live-fire drills in a decade did not specify a year for a potential Chinese invasion, according to open documents seen by Bloomberg News. Despite that, Defense Secretary Wellington Koo appeared to downplay the date.
Han Kuang training is always set a schedule one to two years in the future because acquiring new weapons and training requires repeated training for verification.
It is unclear how the 2027 setting will change the exercise program, or whether this date is actually more of a political signal.
According to Jack Chen, director of the advocacy group Formosa Defense Vision, focusing this year's exercises on 2027 could be a tactic to break the deadlock in Taiwan's divided parliament, where opposition parties are challenging certain military spending plans.
This may make opposition parties and the public feel that an increase in the military budget is an urgent need.
President Xi Jinping has set the People's Liberation Army the goal of becoming a "modern army" by 2027 and a world-class force by 2047.
Last year, US officials claimed that China was preparing to invade Taiwan by 2027, citing evidence that Beijing was building up fighter jets, warships and planning to double its stockpile of ballistic and cruise missiles from 2020.
Taiwanese officials have previously rejected the U.S. assessment, and Ku said in 2023 that China would not be prepared to conduct amphibious operations. Corruption purges that have shaken the upper echelons of the PLA have also raised questions about the ability of Chinese forces to wage war.
